Prospects of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq

Called "Daesh" in Arabic, the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (IS) was the richest jihadist organisation in the world, with over $2 billion US in financial resources, and up to 100,000 fighters, according to numerous sources. In addition, IS not only purchased weapons, but also had a wide network capable of assembling and improvising weapon systems. Since its defeat in 2016, however, IS's fighters, financial means and weapon arsenal have continuously declined, and according to a 2021 report by the US Treasury Department, IS finances have shrunk significantly, but not dried up entirely.

The group's manpower is also declining as the UN estimates that 10,000 of the once 100,000 fighters are still holding out. Given that there are no reasonable alternatives for many combatants, it is highly likely that they could be willing to re-join IS. However, this won't bring up numbers to previous levels.

The group's armament is also far inferior to what it once was. The most recent attacks indicates that IS owns arms, but they consist mostly of light and medium weapons. Their weapons were stolen mostly from the Iraqi army's inventory and IS has deposited numerous weapons in hiding places.

While it is no doubt that IS is trying to consolidate its position, the group still poses a strategic threat on an international or even regional level.