Diplomats close to Moscow in Damascus are discussing several scenarios that could cast a prospective over the Ukrainian crisis:
The first observation is that Israel has refused to provide support to Ukraine for fear that Moscow would “cuff its hands” in Syria during raids against “Iranian sites.”
The second observation is that America decided to increase its interest in eastern Syria, economically, militarily, financially and politically during the Ukrainian war, in the context of putting pressure on Russia. There are also indications that extending the international humanitarian aid will face a deadlock in the face of a blockage in the Russian-American dialogue.
The third observation is that Turkey has positioned itself in a way that allows it to “facilitate” a dialogue between Moscow and Kyiv, within the framework of the “hostile moves” between Russia and Turkey in Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh and Syria. But what is remarkable about the Turkish role is that it is taking place in the absence of the West, which holds the two most important cards that President Vladimir Putin cares about: military support for the Ukrainian army, and Western sanctions on Russian institutions and personalities.
This is very similar to the Syrian war, where the interlocutors and mediators meet, in the absence of real players on the ground. There is another similarity that may crystallize soon, according to diplomats in Damascus: There are several scenarios for the end and fate of the Ukrainian war, one of which is the division of Ukraine into spheres of influence. Another possibility is that Russia will control the east of the road from Odessa (south) to Kyiv (north). This includes linking the Sea of Azov and the Donbas region through Mariupol, while expanding the link with the Crimea and extending from Odessa towards the pro-Moscow republic in Transnistria, in eastern Moldova, as a new station for Russia's future interventions. Eastern Ukraine is a region rich in natural resources, industries, nuclear energy and close to the Russian heart.
As for the western section, it includes the regions west of Kyiv that receive support from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and America for the delivery of military and intelligence equipment through supply lines.
Another diplomat explains that America provides a security umbrella for the old post-2014 supply lines from Romania and Poland to western Ukraine. It also jams Russian radars to prevent them from being bombed. "The US involvement in Ukraine is much more than it was in Syria, when the CIA established a program to train the Syrian opposition through Jordan and Turkey."
According to the Syrian diplomat, "the Dnieper River will not be the boundary between (the two regions), as was the case in Syria, as the Euphrates River separates areas controlled by American-backed forces in eastern Syria, and others controlled by the government with Russian-Iranian support in the west."