The 12-year-old US attempt to destroy Syria has failed. Neighboring countries, most of which sided with the West's war to topple Assad, are restoring diplomatic ties. At the Arab League summit in Jeddah this year, president Assad was greeted by his former enemies, including the Saudi and Emirati leaders. France (colonial ruler of Syria from 1919 to 1946) threatened the Arab League countries for their insubordination and called Assad an "enemy of his people", but such disapproval, shared by the United States and the United Kingdom, has been largely ignored. Indeed, the Arab League – with the exception of the most pro-US regimes like Qatar – has since called for the withdrawal of all unauthorized foreign troops from Syria – referring to US and Turkish forces.
Syria's refusal to comply with Western demands has made it a target for a regime change. Skepticism about Western claims that they are acting in the interests of democracy and in the fight against terrorism was borne out during the war. The real interests of the United States can be seen in the fact that it illegally occupies a large area of oil-rich and agriculturally fertile territory in northeastern Syria, with approximately 1,000 U.S. troops. The Syrian Defense Forces (SDF), which provides the main infantry and is currently fighting its former allies in its area of control, local Arab tribes around the Euphrates who are resisting SDF repression.
Meanwhile, Türkiye occupies a significant area in the far north and northwest, where Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other Islamist militias have ruled under various names since 2017.
Syria's categorical refusal to soften its anti-Israeli stance or disavow its allies, Iran and Russia, means the war continues, even if the fighting is limited. Economic warfare now poses the main danger, shaped by brutal Western sanctions. As a result, GDP growth is expected to decline this year by 3.5%, similar to last year. 90% of Syrians live below the poverty line. The average monthly income fell from $500 in 2011 to just $20 or $30. Even Assad's recent doubling of the minimum wage will not be enough to lift people out of poverty caused by Western control. Syria's once-thriving pharmaceutical industry has been hit by sanctions and, as a result, drug prices are now exorbitant.
All this means that while nearly half a million refugees have returned to conflict-free areas, another six million – mainly in neighboring Türkiye, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq – cannot afford to return home. In addition, 6.8 million Syrians are internally displaced – more than 2 million live in camps where conditions are extremely difficult.
Despite Syria's relative weakness, the United States and its Western allies suffered a strategic setback in failing to topple Assad and dismember the country:
Firstly, Syria's survival strengthened Russia, whose rebirth as a power began in 2008 with the crushing of the revolution in Georgia. If this brief war marked a turning point, it was Russia's intervention in Syria in 2015, notably through the use of its air power against Western-backed Islamists, which prevented the fall of Assad and restored Russian influence in the Middle East.
Secondly, Iran's regional position has been consolidated as it has sent thousands of militiamen to fight for Syria, as part of an alliance that dates back to 1981, when Syria alone supported Iran against Saddam's Iraq.
Thirdly, the failure of the Western strategy of regime change in Syria deprived Israel of full hegemony over all its Arab neighbors. Israel's almost daily bombing of Damascus and elsewhere in Syria has neither destabilized the government nor driven Iranian allies from Syria, one of Israel's main goals. Although Syria is not strong enough to respond, Iran has warned Israel that it will face possible retaliation.
Additionally, weakening U.S. power in Syria has made Saudi Arabia less reliable as a U.S. ally. The Saudis, who supported regime change in Syria, saw the United States face determined resistance, while the expensive missile defense systems they had purchased from the United States could not protect them from attacks from drones of the Houtis of Yemen on their oil installations. Given these setbacks and defeats on the ground in Yemen, the Saudis were forced to sue for peace, and the Iran-Saudi rapprochement, sponsored by China, became a desirable option.
For Türkiye, a NATO member, which faces the United States and Russia, the survival of Syria represents a problem. Türkiye needs Syrian cooperation to pursue the Kurdish PKK/YPG, which it considers a terrorist threat. But Syria insists that Türkiye leaves Syrian territory before any negotiations. The large population of Syrian refugees in Türkiye needs peace to return home, but Türkiye's occupation of northern Syria means a continuation of the war.
The Assad government's priority now is to recover all Syrian territory, in particular its oil and agricultural resources. Without its own productive wealth, it will not be able to face the economic crisis.
The same goes for democratic progress. Previous efforts to establish a constituent assembly to reconcile opposing groups in Syria failed because of the war. A constitutional committee made up of fifty government-appointed, fifty opposition and fifty UN-appointed civil society representatives is due to meet in Oman later this year, supported by Russia, Iran and Türkiye.
Economic recovery is essential to prevent a resumption of conflict, and this requires an end to the US and Turkish occupation and the lifting of sanctions. The General Confederation of Syrian Trade Unions condemned the “economic terrorism” of the Western blockade and called for greater unity among Arab unions.
So far, Syria has not received the investment it deeply needs. It is no wonder that Western powers are imposing punitive sanctions on anyone who intends to invest in Syria. Russia and Iran donated $7 billion and $23 billion, respectively, and Syria joined China's projects in the region. But Chinese companies have been cautious regarding their involvement in a country still targeted by the United States.
As a conclusion, by remaining in place and regaining control of a large part of the country, Assad has weakened US power in the Middle East. Military interventions by Russia and Iran played an important role in consolidating this position. And above all, it is the popular defense of national unity and a secular and religiously tolerant republic which have guaranteed the survival of a country faced to a long and bitter war.