What we see in Syria today, the resounding fall of the regime, and people taking to the streets with joyful chants, is a scene similar to what happened 14 years ago in Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, and Egypt.
The regime would have fallen by then if its protective arms had been cut off, which is what happened today as a result of the ongoing wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Ukraine, wars that cast their shadows directly on Syria. With Israel's successive strikes on Hezbollah, its leaders, and its ammunition depots, and the Russian military focusing its power on its war against Ukraine, Bashar al-Assad's chances of survival ended, and he fell within days.
Fortunately for the Syrians, the world has been filled with sympathy for them throughout these years. The international community is showing great interest in the current Syrian situation, and Arab countries have been quick to announce their position of support and assistance. Everyone is taking the initiative to ensure “post-shock” stability so that the tragedies of the countries that experienced the same events are not repeated and chaos and manifestations of political or economic instability do not prevail.
Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Moscow, excluded all the opportunities presented to him, not only the helping hand extended by Iran and Russia, but more importantly the Arab position that had been trying until the past few weeks to make efforts to reach understandings with him for protecting his country’s sovereignty from foreign presence, urging him to gather the diaspora, inviting people to return, and stopping threatening the security of the region with the Captagon shipments he exports. The Arab League extended its hand to him in a generous attempt full of hope, but he failed to keep his promises, because he had no control over his own affairs. He withdrew to his palace, abandoning Syria divided into provinces ruled by militias protected by foreigners, each serving his own goals.
Syria today is free, but unstable. Multiple alarming scenarios may occur unless the Syrians themselves are aware of the seriousness of the stage, and realize that their first enemy is foreign intervention, whether political, financial or armed, outside the framework of the government, or the negotiating authority body at the present time.
Their second enemy is the dispute between them, the source of the dispute is the attempt by the parties that participated in overthrowing the regime to obtain the largest share of the loot.
The most powerful parties that will come to the fore are the “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” Front, the “Free Syrian Army” supported by the United States, the “Syrian opposition” supported by Turkey, in addition to the Kurds and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
The armed and trained “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” Front is led by Abu Muhammad al-Golani (Ahmed al-Sharaa), who gave a speech in the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, presenting his vision for the future in balanced language, in which he showed restraint in displaying the rhetoric of extremist factions.
The truth is that “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” Front has a historic opportunity that will not be repeated, by presenting itself as a national faction that contributed greatly to the overthrow of the dictatorship, and - for al-Sharaa - to present itself as a political partner in building modern Syria. This opportunity is similar to what was available to the Taliban movement in 2021 after the United States withdrew from Afghanistan and the rule of the country was transferred to it. But the Taliban failed in civil administration, and Afghanistan returned to being filled with chaos, backwardness, and weapons as it was 40 years ago.
The path ahead of Ahmed al-Sharaa is clear, and he is the one who will decide whether to be an enemy or a partner. Even with the American statements against him and his Front, if he takes a step forward, everyone will review their position towards him, including Washington.
The other party is the Kurdish forces (SDF), and their role was effective in the north, where their locations the watchdog over Daesh activity in eastern Syria, especially in Raqqa, where they have spread in recent days. They also have a major transitional role, and their integration into the national partnership will protect them and achieve their goals of stability in the geography for which they are fighting.
Syria today needs the international community, but its need for the Arab countries is greater, to unite the Syrians and control foreign intrusion, without direct interference in their own decisions or blackmail with money and weapons.