Today, Syria seems more divided and more alienated than ever before. The danger of the division is that it comes from controlling forces outside the regime, and not a division between the overthrown regime and the forces outside it. In addition to the fact that the ex-regime has a covered presence and a real force, with material and human capabilities. Some of its expressions have public activity under different names and through various means, and some others exist as sleeper cells that can be activated at any moment. This makes the map of the Syrian conflict distributed among three main forces that are fighting according to their capabilities and goals.
The first and most important force is the “Military Operations Administration” which is led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, the leader of “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham”. Since the moment the Assad regime was toppled and control was imposed over most of the Syrian territories, it has became the most legitimate force in light of the internal, regional and international interactions, as well as because its steps and positions that found an acceptable echo at home and abroad. This gave it, in addition to its strong relations with Türkiye, a space of strength in dealing with the remaining vectors of the overthrown regime and the Kurdish forces.
The Kurdish “Autonomous Administration” is run in the shadows by the Kurdish Democratic Union Party, with its political front, the “Syrian Democratic Council” (SDC), and its military arm, the “Syrian Democratic Forces” (SDF). It controls areas in four provinces extending across northern and eastern Syria, namely Hasakah, Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa, and Aleppo, which include the most important centers of the country’s wealth in terms of water, agricultural land, oil, and gas. All of this, along with the “Autonomous Administration’s” relationship with the United States and the International Coalition fighting DAESH, constitutes a force supporting the survival and continuation of the Kurdish Administration, despite its hostility and military clashes with Türkiye.
The conflict between the “Military Operations Administration” and the “Autonomous Administration”, whether at the political or the military level, represents a serious challenge, as no agreement and political solution to the existing differences has been reached. There is no doubt that the intervention of the actors who managed the change process in Syria will stop the negative repercussions and bring closer the chances of a political solution, especially in light of the danger posed by the remnants of the Assad regime in causing confusion and chaos in some Syrian regions.
The multiplicity of conflicting forces in their current state represents a danger that deserves close attention and urgent treatment, especially in light of the recent announcements issued by the "SDF" and the "Operations Administration". An urgent solution will save effort and costs, especially amid the fragmentation and weakness surrounding the political groups distributed between the interior and the Syrian diaspora, which today need initiatives that bring them together. Going in this direction will open better horizons in inter-relations, whether in the relations of political groups with the "Operations Administration" and its government, or in the relations between political groups aligned outside the new regime.
Contrary to the current situation regarding the possibilities of the Syrian groups and the relations between them in case of conflict, the situation of the individuals and their relations seems more difficult and complex, as a result of the developments that the country has experienced and witnessed in the shadow of the wars, and the various and multiple experiences that have surrounded the Syrians inside and in the diaspora which have prevented the creation of rapprochements between them, despite the urgent need and political necessities.
Producing and developing intellectual and political convergences among Syrians, including the political elite, is essential for them to have a role and influence in the present and the close future of Syria. The path to convergence begins with adopting a positive spirit in raising and discussing issues on the grounds that they do not only concern their owners, but also concern most Syrians, such as the nature of the state system, issues of freedoms, human rights, and political participation.