What Lebanon experienced recently was a pivotal event by all standards. It is more than just electing a president for the republic, but the ending of vacancy at the head of state that was actually indicating a systemic crisis.
The election of army commander General Joseph Aoun, with a comfortable majority of votes in the second round of parliamentary voting, ended an abnormal situation that the Levant region has witnessed in recent years.
It is natural that every people in the world fight for liberation from the “de facto forces” that control their fate and the resources of their country, regardless of whether these “forces” are foreign countries, police regimes, or factional militias.
The fact is that, for both Lebanon and Syria, a major regional state, Iran, provided conditions of grow up for militias that followed it and worked under its command. It is known that this situation seemed, for a short period, suitable for another regional power, Israel, which did not feel by that a direct threat to its interests in the region. Besides, the incitement of ethnic, religious and sectarian tension in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon - and even in Palestine - constituted the greatest service rendered to Israel in the region, and this despite the clamor of slogans like “liberating Jerusalem”, “resistance”, “defense”, “steadfastness”, “confrontation”… and so on!
Moreover, it was understandable that the major players in the international community believed that this situation in the region would be acceptable as long as it remained governed by undeclared “limits” that the three influential non-Arab regional players, namely Israel, Iran, and Türkiye, would not cross, directly or indirectly. However, these beliefs have begun to shake after the change that occurred in recent years in each of the three countries. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose to build his government on the basis of relying on the support of the extremist settlers, right to escape prosecution. In contrast, Iranian dreams have inflated under the leadership of the “Revolutionary Guard” and taking advantage of the Joe Biden administration's leak of reaction. Meanwhile, Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Türkiye has strengthened the Islamic-nationalist “alliance” in the face of the threat of Kurdish separatists.
As for the Arab world, the situation was shaken by the “Arab Spring,” which Bashar al-Assad misunderstood the importance of dealing with. As a result, the mistakes of his rule accumulated, amidst the gradual conflict of priorities between Russia and Iran, without which he would not have survived until the last few weeks.
Suddenly, in the fall of 2023, Hamas threw the first stone into the stagnant waters by launching “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation, which exhausted most observers and analysts in their attempts to analyse its justifications and means.
Then, in confirmation of Tehran’s facilitating role, the Lebanese Hezbollah joined the fight, and waged a suicidal “support war” that destroyed dozens of Lebanese Shiite towns and villages, not to mention the southern suburbs of Beirut. In turn, Israel eliminated the party’s political and military leadership, headed by its Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.
Certainly, the humiliating blow to Iran’s strongest ally in the region has deeply affected the Iranian military presence in Syria. Then, differences in tactics between Moscow and Tehran have surfaced. In this atmosphere, the northeastern front of Syria moved from Idlib, and in less than three days, the Assad regime (which had dominated Syria since 1970 and Lebanon since 1976), had practically fallen without resistance.
The collapse of Tehran's influence and the fall of Damascus regime allowed Lebanon to regain its self-confidence and the conviction that the time has come for all Lebanese to save their country and their future. This atmosphere, full of positivity, was supported by Arab and international actors in order to rebuild the Lebanese state, starting with ending the vacancy at the head of state by electing a president of the republic.
And it was necessary for this president to be a unifying and institutional figure, who enjoyed the confidence of the country and abroad, and the choice was not difficult. The army, led by Joseph Aoun, was the only national institution that was spared from cracking and then collapse in the regional geo-strategic context.
The man himself enjoys the respect of the Arab and international institutions, the most important thing that Lebanon will need in the coming days, while the equations and maps of the region are being redrawn.