The events of the latest round of clashes in Aleppo between government forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) were tragic, leaving behind dead, wounded, displaced, and devastated people. Their tragedy is exacerbated by the fact that the suffering of Syrians from the Assad regime’s war is still present in their lives and in the reality of their country, which also witnessed rounds of clashes last year on the coast and in the south.
Another point that aggravated the tragedy of the Aleppo conflict is that it took place between two parties who signed an agreement last year stipulating the integration of the SDF into Syrian state institutions. This is an agreement that neither party has declared they are abandoning, but rather they have both insisted on it, despite statements and remarks made here and there, which were among the reasons that hindered moving forward in implementing the agreement and reaching a happy ending for all Syrians.
Despite the tragedy of what happened in Aleppo, and the human and material losses that weigh heavily on the lives and future of the victims and all Syrians, the armed conflict is heading towards its end amid a clear political and field victory for the government forces. This means that the two sides of the clash will go to a meeting with the new political and field results, which impose on the government a behaviour rather faraway from extremism, because the matter is not related to the issue of the “SDF” as a political and military entity, but rather to fulfilling some of the demands of the Syrian Kurds, given their presence and importance within the framework of the national community in Syria.
This behaviour will not be required of the government alone, but it is also required of the SDF, meaning to show good faith by abandoning the policy of undisguised extremism. Even more required is to stop its policy of exploiting some internal and regional circumstances for manoeuvring or buying time in the hope of strategic developments that lead to a comprehensive or partial change in Syria.
If a scenario of goodwill and humanity occurs in upcoming negotiations between the SDF and the Syrian government, the most important outcome will be also a positive response to the ongoing tensions between the government and the Druze in Suwayda, as well to the volatile situation in a sector of the Mediterranean coast.
Despite the positive and important nature of the previous scenario, the most likely forecast after the events in Aleppo in dealing with the conflict between the SDF and the government is a solution that is a mixture of armed confrontation and political negotiation between the two sides, under the pressure of the American mediator who, although he supports the SDF leadership within the framework of their partnership in the international coalition against ISIS, he supports and assists as well the Damascus government.
Therefore, SDF has no options to escape the two previous options. If it refuses or is unable to go with the government to a scenario of good faith in negotiations for a complete settlement, it will have no option but of agreeing with the government under the pressure of force on one hand and political pressure, especially American pressure, on the other. All it can do is to delay the agreement for some time, nothing more, and it is believed that the Damascus government would ignore this possibility in order to avoid the damage of another decisive armed clashes in northeastern Syria.