As the war between Israel and the United States, on one side, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, on the other, approaches a whole month, five possible scenarios emerge in policymaking circles around the world:
The first scenario: President Donald Trump does what he has done repeatedly; he declares victory and then moves to something else.
When the United States began launching Tomahawk missiles at Iran last month, many hoped for a short military operation, similar to last June’s strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. However, we are now hearing from several sources, including Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, that Iran possesses numerous undisclosed sites scattered throughout the country. Furthermore, no one knows where Tehran is storing the 400 kilograms of enriched uranium that could be upgraded to produce nuclear warheads in a short time.
Therefore, the first scenario seems risky and its results are not guaranteed.
The second scenario is that Trump refocuses on Iran’s missile arsenal, claiming it has been completely destroyed, thus providing him with a way out of the war. However, this would be like a gamble, as Tehran could launch a single missile or drone just days after Trump declares victory to demonstrate that the leader of the most powerful nation in history has expressed himself prematurely.
The third scenario, which is preferred by some members of Trump’s inner circle, but is completely disliked by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is the Venezuela model: after cutting off the head of the regime, it is allowed to suffer and remain under the leadership of a second gang of leaders, who shares the same ideology.
However, this scenario may not be applicable to Iran for two reasons:
First: Venezuela under Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro was not seeking to wipe Israel off the map, nor to expel the Americans from Latin America, nor did it have agents in the backyard of the United States or sleeper terrorist cells inside.
Second: The second wave of leaders of the Khomeini movement in Tehran may be forced to adopt more radical positions in order to preserve what remains of the regime’s popular base.
The fourth scenario for this war is simply to continue bombing and wait for the results. However, this scenario also faces obstacles: After a week or two, the US and Israel may run out of military or dual-use (civilian and military) targets. This would force the artificial intelligence—which we are told identifies military targets—to recommend striking anywhere and anything, potentially creating millions of displaced people who will never be satisfied with the US and Israel.
As for the fifth scenario, president Trump is scheduled to hold his postponed summit with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in Beijing next April. Wouldn't this be a suitable opportunity to declare victory and end the war, in exchange for a guarantee from Xi to keep the dying Khomeini regime under strict control until the Iranians themselves find a way out of this deadly predicament?