Everybody hopes that the new regime in Syria will build an independent, secure and developing state that embraces all components of its people. But the new Syrian administration faces numerous challenges as it tries to navigate through the complexities of governing a country devastated by years of conflict and multifaceted obstacles, ranging from political instability, economic devastation, social fragmentation, and international pressure.
Political instability is one of the most significant challenges: the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, has left a large power vacuum and a fragmented political landscape. Various factions, including remnants of the Assad regime, opposition groups, extremist organizations, and minority groups, continue to compete for getting control. Creating a cohesive and inclusive government that can gain the trust and support of Syria’s diverse population, both ethnically and culturally, is a discouraging task. The new administration is also expected to be confronted with the delicate balance of power between regional and international players, each with their own interests and influence in the region.
Syria’s economy is in shambles, with infrastructure destroyed by years of conflict. The new administration faces the daunting task of rebuilding the country’s economy from the ground up. Unemployment is alarmingly high, and many Syrians live in poverty. Basic services, such as health care, education, and utilities, have been disrupted, and revitalizing the economy will require significant international aid, investment, and a comprehensive strategy to restore infrastructure, create jobs, and stimulate growth. In addition, the administration would do well to address the omnipresent issue of corruption, which impedes development efforts and perpetuates inequality.
The difficulties are many: First, there is a segment of Syrian society that has, due to circumstances, relative independence in a large area of Syria. They are the Syrian Kurds and among them those who ask “complete independence,” which is an idealistic theory that has led to many problems for the Kurds in various regions, including Türkiye. Others among the Kurds of Syria see the Iraqi model as a way out.
The second is the ideal national ambition, which is carried by a Syrian segment of population who asks to achieve an ideal state at the present moment, which is an almost impossible process. There are also the Druze monotheists in Sweida, the Alawites on the Mediterranean coast, the Christians and other groups, each of whom has a grudge with the old regime, and has demands from the new regime, some of which are almost unfeasible.
Thirdly, we cannot ignore a large segment that sees itself as the majority, and has suffered the most from the oppression and injustice of the previous regime, that demands to be ruled by Islamic Sharia. Faced with these three components, in addition to regional and international ambitions in Syria, the new regime finds itself on a path that is easy for anybody to slip on.
No one can ignore Iran’s ambition to return to Syria, nor Moscow’s ambition to remain on the Syrian coast. The first has suffered a heavy loss, and will try hard after leaving by the door to return through the window. As for Russia, its old and renewed dream of putting its feet in warm waters should not be underestimated either.
So far, the statements coming from senior officials of the new Syrian administration are reassuring, but it would be a mistake to underestimate the major challenges facing the new Syria. Perhaps there are two interconnected steps that the new administration needs: the first, reasonable speed in rebuilding the promised State institutions, and the second, close attention to the media in its various and modern forms, in order to prevent the atmosphere from being poisoned by false and fabricated news.