Lately, Iraqi National Electoral Commission confirmed the victory of Moqtada Sadr Movement on the expenses of the pro-Iranian Fatah Alliance which have continuously claimed the fraud and asked justice to cancel the ballot. With a participation rate of 44%, the Sadrist party won 73 seats in the incoming parliament of the country, namely a quarter of the Parliament's seats. On the other side, Fatah Alliance got only 17 seats against 48 in the previous parliament.
Hashd Al Shabi faction, which is the most important component of Fatah Alliance, denounced the results and organised a sit-in behind the main gate of the Green Zone, trying to enter by force in this ultra-secure area comprising governmental institutions and embassies. Despite the failure in election, Hashd Al Shabi is an inevitable actor on the political scene, with its 160.000 combatants integrated in the Iraqi Army and the extensive support of Iran. The group first entered in Parliament in 2018, after military victories against Islamic State terrorist organisation in the North of the country. On the national political ground they enjoyed the support of the party led by the former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki, who won 33 seats.
After formal confirmation of the ballot's results by the Federal Tribunal, the Parliament will enter its first legal session, will elect the new president of the republic and starts negotiations for the future government.
Because the multi-confessional and multi-ethnicity of Iraqi nation, negotiations will be rather though between the dominant Shiite parties, taking into consideration that Moqtada Sadr's positions are diametrical opposed to those of pro-Iranian factions. Besides, the Sadrist leader has always proclaimed that the incoming prime minister should be designed by his own group and the government should be composed by representatives of parties which won the most elevated scores in the election.
Moreover, the Sadrist Movement could actually build a surprising majority, trying an alliance with Sunnite formations as Taqadom Party (37 seats) and Kurdistan Democratic Party (31 seats).
As analysts foresee, tensions between Sadrist Movement and Hashd Al Shabi will certainly persist, because each camp looks for supremacy on internal political scene. So for, the risk of escalation and conflict is still present.