Next to the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut, the world is waiting to see the reaction of Tehran, the ally and founder of the Lebanese Shiite movement. What after?
Since the instant when the death of Hassan Nasrallah was confirmed by Hezbollah itself, this is the question that all diplomats are asking. For months, the fear of a total conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has fueled analyses. Now, here we are. The step has just been taken. By assassinating Nasrallah, the Israeli government confirms its strategy of eradicating the militias supported by Iran, deployed after October 7 against Hamas. And in doing so, we are even closer to a direct confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv.
To tell the truth, the escalation did not start on the moment of the deadly strike. The crescendo had begun at the beginning of the summer, when the Israeli army had struck the number two of the organization, in the middle of Beirut. Then came, in mid-September, the dazzling attack by means of walkie-talkies and booby-trapped beepers, before the hammer blow on Nasrallah himself, symbol of the power of a militia born after the invasion of southern Lebanon by Israel, in 1982.
Nasrallah, a master of communication, had succeeded in building a very unique power, combining a very strong social dimension within the Lebanese Shiite population with a political and a military dimension, at the mercy of Iran.
Nevertheless, if cries of joy rang out among Sunni Arabs in Iraq, Syria, and even Lebanon, at the announcement of Nasrallah’s death, it is precisely because during the Syrian conflict, his men played a major role in certain massacres of civilians, notably during the siege of Aleppo, supported by Russian forces and soldiers loyal to Bashar al-Assad. In Lebanon, the death of many civilians in the Israeli strikes rightly arouses emotion and anger everywhere, but no one, except Hezbollah’s loyalists, will mourn the disappearance of Nasrallah.
The question remains, however: And now, what will Iran’s reaction be and through what channels? Will its destabilizing power be concentrated in the standoff with Israel, using its affiliated militias in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon, or will it instead aim to tear down all Lebanon? This is the fear of many Lebanese.
The Israeli attack on Beirut responds to the extremists push to the limit in the Netanyahu government. It probably also responds to a cold calculation within the Israeli army, namely, that the current situation offered a unique opportunity to decimate and weaken Hezbollah for several years. Does this calculation also include the desire to weaken Iran further, before the Mullahs of Tehran fully possess nuclear fire? This is the hypothesis that makes one shiver the most, when evokes a risk of conflagration. Because, due to the respective alliances in the region of the United States and Russia, a direct conflict between Israel and Iran would go far beyond the purely local framework.