The Iranian regime, which emerged after what is known as the Islamic Revolution against the Shah’s regime, is a complex and intricate system, whose essence is to affirm the authority of the Supreme Leader and to reject all those who do not please the guardians of the regime’s ideas, and all those who are outside the approved “elite.”
The head of these institutions and councils, and their beating heart, is the Supreme Leader, currently Mr. Ali Khamenei, who is 86 years old. But, who will succeed him?! This question has been raised inside and outside Iran for a long time, even before the current US President, Donald Trump, took office, whether in his first or second term.
Whoever succeeds him, whether his son Mojtaba or someone else, will he enjoy the same powers and charisma as his predecessor, Ali Khamenei?
Under the Supreme Leader's control there are institutions that make the regime’s decisions, the most important of which is the Assembly of Experts, composed of members of the religious elite. Its main task is to choose or dismiss the Supreme Leader, but this has never happened.
Another influential body is the Guardian Council, whose function is to prevent laws issued by the Consultative Assembly to go against the Constitution of the Islamic Revolution state, and to avoid the candidacy of those it deems to be against the revolution, for parliamentary elections.
Beside this is the Expediency Discernment Council, whose function is to resolve disputes between the Consultative Assembly and the Guardian Council.
But the Iranian regime’s “shield” and "sword" is the institution of the Revolutionary Guards, or the “Revolutionary Guard,” which has surpassed the classical army in every way, in addition to being a giant, diversified commercial institution, which became in short a “state within a state.” This “Revolutionary Guard” was established shortly after the revolution, and expanded significantly during the 1980-1988war with Iraq.
The commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Mohammad Pakpour, his deputy Ahmad Vahidi, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard's naval forces, Ali Reza Tangsiri, and the current commander of the Quds Force, Ismail Qaani, still enjoy broad influence.
Nobody knows exactly when or how the first shot will be fired in the American-Iranian war, or what the day after will look like, but what is certain is that Iran's leaders are prepared for this confrontation, regardless of the effectiveness of this preparation. Iranian Defence Minister, Major General Aziz Nasirzadeh, recently threatened both Israel and America in a statement to the Iranian Broadcasting Corporation's news agency, saying that "our capabilities today are much greater than they were during the twelve-day war."
Will the regime in Iran change after the anticipated war? Or will the regime soften before the event occurs? And if the regime does change, in what way? The answer to these questions could determine the shape of the next fifty years in the country, after Khomeini and his companions will be forced to give-up power.