A characteristic of the Syrian civil war in the middle of the last decade was the religious extremism of the most effective groups involved in the conflict. On the one hand, numerous Sunni Islamist and jihadist groups were there, the best known and most successful of which were the "Al Nusrah Front", affiliated with Al Qaeda, and the "Islamic State", a derivate group from the terrorist network and opponents of the "Al Nusrah Front". Beyond the conflict between them and the somewhat more brutal nature of the "Islamic State", the ideological differences between the two were minor. They embraced the same radical interpretation of Islam, fought to establish a regime governed according to Islamic law, the Sharia, and resorted to terrorism, including suicide bombings, to achieve their goals. On the other side, pro-Iranian Shiite militias were also motivated by religious fanaticism – from the desire to avenge Imam Hussein (killed in the 7th century) to the desire to defend the holy Shiite sites (the tomb of Sayda Zaynab, Hussein's sister). In both the Sunni and Shiite camps there were individuals who believed that the war was the beginning of the final battle between good and evil, a war of the end of the world .
The fanatics of a decade ago have not disappeared. The "Islamic State", although defeated, has survived in small bastions in the desert of eastern Syria and has become active again. Kurdish forces, which, with American support, control most of the east of the country, have been moving precisely to prevent the "Islamic State" from capturing some key cities, primarily Deir al-Zor, and have warned that the jihadists are expanding their territories .
The "Al-Nusrah Front" officially broke away from Al Qaeda in 2016 and was renamed "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham", the "Organization for the liberation of the Levant." Its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Golani, assured that the group was a moderated one, it is not interested in operations outside Syria and it intends to establish a regime in which the rights of minorities, brutally attacked by jihadist groups over time, will be protected. However, it should not be forgotten that the jihadist doctrine also includes the so-called "taqiyya", the Islamic practice of suppression: in order to achieve his goals, a good Muslim is allowed to conceal and even violate religious precepts.
Some of the jihadists who attacked the United States on September 11, 2001, led secular lives, even publicly consuming alcohol, in order to cover-up. Hamas concealed its intentions in the years before attacking Israel, and even the Taliban feigned a certain moderation when negotiating the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Therefore, it is not excluded that once he sees his control over most of Syria consolidated, al-Golani will return to a more radical discourse or seek to export its ideology to neighbouring countries, just as it is not excluded that the Islamic State, if it manages to strengthen itself, will seek to expand its operations to neighbouring countries, primarily in Iraq, where it still has active cells, but also, for example, in Jordan.
Beyond the uncertainties surrounding the jihadists' intentions, the situation in Syria remains extremely complicated. Opposition groups, even if some have now cooperated, are not united and many have separate militias. The Kurds control a significant part of the territory and are supported by the United States, but Türkiye does not welcome their presence and has shown in the past that it is willing to attack them directly and cooperate with Islamist groups against them.
And beyond all these security issues and the fragmentation of political and militant groups, two big issues remain: the refugees and the economic situation. At least 14 million Syrians have been forced to flee their homes since the beginning of the war; about half are internally displaced, and the rest have taken refuge in surrounding countries, which are under pressure to support them and would like them to leave, and in the West. Most of those refugees will return home, and here comes the second problem: where to return to? The civil war has been devastating (and to this must be added the consequences of the 2023 earthquake) and Syria's economy is in collapse; in recent years, Bashar al-Assad's regime, in order to stay afloat, has transformed the country into a narco-state that lives off the production and export of drugs to the region.