Even before the start of Russian military operations in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the international community, and in particular European countries, heavily dependent on Russian gas supplies, were anxious by the major impact that this crisis could have on deliveries and hydrocarbon prices.
If these fears proved to be justified, the extent of their geopolitical and media impact eclipsed the many other economic consequences of the Ukrainian conflict for large parts of the world, first and foremost the Middle East. The latter is indeed highly dependent on Russia and Ukraine for the delivery of various consumer goods and certain raw materials, in particular wheat and various other agricultural products.
Indeed, for mainly geographical reasons, most Middle Eastern countries are almost not able to ensure their food self-sufficiency, particularly in agriculture: the growing water stress in the region, from Iraq to Iran, via Syria or Jordan, prevents it from developing an agricultural sector capable of meeting the needs of a population that is itself growing almost permanently.
If the initiatives and attempts to resolve the problem are multiplying in the region, following the example of the South-East Anatolia project in Turkey, the Peace Canal in Jordan or even the policies of agricultural development led by the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq, the Middle East is highly dependent on Russian and Ukrainian wheat, as the conflict illustrates particularly eloquently.
The economic impact of the Ukrainian crisis on the Middle East, however, does not stop at the agricultural issue alone and also involves the hydrocarbon sector and various other products, such as the recent images of trucks storing tons of vegetable oil in order to anticipating a potential shortage was able to show this.
On April 1, 2022, through the voice of an economic adviser to the Biden administration, the United States announced their growing fear of seeing famine situations appear around the world due to the conflict in Ukraine, in particular in the Middle-East. And for good reason: Russia is the largest wheat exporter in the world and Ukraine the fifth. The latter holds, in fact, one third of the most fertile land in the world according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
Responsible for 25.4% of wheat exports in the world in 2020, Russia and Ukraine dredge in their wake about fifty countries obtaining more than 30% of wheat from them, including about thirty which exceeds well over 40%. This is the case of countries such as Eritrea (100%) or Central Asian and Transcaucasian countries such as Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Armenia, Azerbaijan or Georgia (more than 95%), but above all of a large number of countries in the Middle East: Syria (nearly 100%), Egypt (80%), Turkey (85%) or even Libya (75%) and Lebanon (60%). These figures show the notable dependence of the Middle East on the supply of Russian-Ukrainian wheat. In fact, 50% of Ukrainian wheat exports in 2020 were destined for the Middle East.
Ukraine and Russia are also, respectively, the first and second largest producers of sunflower seeds, totaling more than 80% of world production. These seeds are mainly exploited for the production of sunflower oil, an essential ingredient in the food industry which uses it for the production of fries, crisps, sauces, biscuits, margarines, prepared meals, etc., but also in the daily kitchen of homes. However, the Middle East mainly sources sunflower oil from Russians and Ukrainians; the latter thus represented 87.8% of Iraqi imports in 2020 for example, 69.7% of Turkish imports in 2021, and more than half of Egyptian imports in 2020.
In addition to harming the cultivation and harvesting of wheat, the war in Ukraine also disrupted its export: the Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea from which ships loaded with wheat departed, in particular those of Odessa, Kherson and Mykolaiv are indeed the object of a blockade led by the Russian Navy. However, these ports are essential for Ukrainian wheat exports: in 2020, 95% of Ukrainian exports of this cereal left from these ports.
Consequently to the Ukrainian crisis, the dependence of the Middle East on the two belligerents for their cultivation and supply of wheat has thus caused very strong food insecurity feeling.