Three fundamental trajectories of change, briefly named "Palestine, Syria, and Iran," fundamentally shape the evolution of the situation in the Middle East, and consequently the nature of the future regional order. These trajectories bear different scenarios, and it is still too early to judge or predict which scenario of these trajectories will become the new reality. It goes without saying that these trajectories influence and are influenced by each other in various ways in their development, due to the reciprocal influence of the region's political geography. This is exacerbated by the uniqueness of the Middle Eastern region, due to societal interconnectedness, which is reinforced and strengthened by ideological and political identities that transcend states.
The first of these unpredictable paths is the Israeli war that began in Gaza and has yet to end, expanding into Lebanon. The agreement reached did not prevent the continuation of Israeli military operations under the banner of "pre-emptive defence." Meanwhile, the Lebanese authorities are working to extend their full control over the area south of the Litani river. A volatile element in this framework is the escalating Israeli policy of taking measures to complete the annexation of the West Bank, while truce-diplomacy continues to govern the negotiating track on Gaza. Will we remain within the logic of containing and reducing the ongoing war with temporary truces, before a new explosion returns in the near or distant future? Will we see the crystallization of Arab-international action on the eve of the Arab Summit in preparation for reviving the peace process through a path, which will certainly not be easy, starting with an international conference to be held under joint Saudi-French sponsorship or will we return to intermittent wars and temporary truces?
The second track concerns the future of Syria, which, by virtue of its location, significantly influences regional stability in the Levant in particular and the Middle East in general. What is really reassuring is the widespread Arab support and assistance extended to Syria during this difficult phase in its history. However, fears remain of a descent into chaos, regardless of its intensity or geographical extent, and of the spread of multiple conflicts and disputes that would prevent or impede the rebuilding of stability on new foundations, which remains the necessary condition for building a new Syria based on the effective participation of all its political and social components in the new system. This is more than essential, not only for Syria but for regional stability as well.
The third track concerns the future of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations, which extend beyond the nuclear issue to other areas related to Iran's policies in the region and its roles. Several questions arise in this context: Will Iran accept an agreement regarding uranium enrichment lower than the agreement reached in 2015, from which Trump withdrew? Will it agree to completely abandon any nuclear capability, or will various guarantees be reached and given to Washington, which may extend beyond the nuclear issue to include political, economic, and security guarantees, in exchange for its agreement to allow Iran to possess "some nuclear weapons"? Or, in the event of failure, will Washington give the green light to Israel to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, with the various repercussions of such a scenario?
The final question is: Which scenarios emerge from these three paths will largely determine the future developments in the region and the nature of the new regional order.