The Moscow attack was not a surprise to observers: the possibilities of escalation in actions of terrorist organizations were expected since 2021 summer, after the American withdrawal from Afghanistan. The "Taliban” extended their control over Afghanistan and were able from threatening competitors or opponents. In the same time, the “Taliban” benefited from the rush of the countries of the region towards them: China wants to ensure that the “Taliban” does not train the Uyghurs again, and India contacts them and exchanges information with them.
The attack on Moscow, like any major event, came with contradictory scenarios and analyses, such as what happened after the events of September 11. These interpretations reached sometimes to strange conclusions, which could be summarized as follows:
The first analysis, which is adopted by Russian agencies and channels: They say that America and the West have a hand in these attacks, as they used unruly gangs and hired killers in order to relieve pressure on Kiev. They are certain that the results of the official investigation will lead to Ukrainian-Western involvement in the operation. They try to prove that “ISIS Khorasan” indulges in killing without having an escape plan because they kill in the name of religion with the aim of martyrdom.
The second analysis: It is believed that “ISIS Khorasan” is indeed responsible for this operation, but it cannot be denied that there is a “Western collusion” with this operation, as America possesses terrible information about most operations before they occur. It is true that “ISIS Khorasan” was the one who carried the attacks, but how could it do it without Western support and deep security penetration?! Accordingly, the authors of this analysis insist that the perpetrator is “ISIS Khorasan,” but all this power to penetrate Moscow’s security and reach the targeted compound is greater than the capabilities of the terrorist group.
The third analysis: It is believed that “ISIS Khorasan” was already on alert, and its ambitions have increased after the Russian rapprochement with the "Taliban". Also, the group desired to issue a scoop in the region announcing the rise of the ISIS faction from its slumber. This challenge made the “Taliban” accelerate towards communicating with the surrounding countries, and even began to cooperate in providing intelligence information to countries such as China, and perhaps even Russia. Therefore, this analysis speaks about a purely terrorist act, an event motivated only by ideology.
The conclusion is that this Moscow attacks express the peaks that armed groups reached after a long period of latency. They do not disappear or extinguish, but they are recreated and formed anew. “ISIS Khorasan” carried out this attack and has a project in the region. It has been able to recruit hundreds over the past two years. It is not possible to predict the next ISIS move, but the most important thing is to always be prepared to receive disastrous waves of violence, because terrorism will remain as long as the idea remains.