The scenarios of the future relationship between AQ and ISIS after Ayman Al-Zawahiri have become of concern to many experts, in light of the usual competition between the two terrorist organizations over the past years. According to Arab experts, the rapprochement of AQ and ISIS is difficult, but it may be possible and a tacit or tactical alliance could occur, similar to what happened between the groups in the Sahel and in Syria. Experts did not rule out the emergence of a new entity from the two organizations during the next stage.
Al-Zawahiri was killed in a US raid carried out in early August in Afghanistan, in the biggest blow to the terrorist organization since the killing of its founder, Osama bin Laden, in 2011. Observers believe that "the relationship between the two organizations is governed by conflict and competition." They also indicated that “ISIS ignored the killing of Al-Zawahiri and did not publish any comments regarding the attack. Instead, it continued to try to attract AQ elements and present itself as the only organization that follows the jihadist approach.
The Egyptian researchers in the affairs of Islamic movements and terrorism said that the convergence of AQ and ISIS may be possible and this rapprochement has occurred before in Libya and it was caused by personal relationships. Sometimes there is an identification between some elements on a personal level that can achieve compatibility. However, this may be at the level of the local component and not at the level of the organization as a whole. Convergences may also occur in other regions, in the Middle East, in Asia, and perhaps in Khorasan between some elements of the two organizations.
Other experts asserted that the state of hostility between the two organizations is likely to continue because the differences between their organizational and operational methods, and therefore the two organizations will continue to walk on parallel paths, and each will seek to attract the fighters of the other organization to continue to work and enhance its capabilities.
Observers believe that “the repercussions of the division between ISIS and AQ always result in the emergence of fierce competition; the progress of one of the two organizations in terms of global terrorism indicates a definite loss for the other party, which was repeated with the rise of ISIS at the expense of AQ when the organization weakened, and many of its elements fled." And they added: “On the ground, the two organizations suffer from weakness, but they may ally themselves, for example, on the distribution of influence, the sharing of some resources, as well as the sharing of roles. Differences will remain and will not be resolved. They will be barely postponed.”
Experts concluded that it is not excluded that a new entity will emerge, with new mechanisms, from the two organizations during the next stage, with other people who do not raise the banner of AQ or ISIS, but officially unification is excluded. At the local level, there are understandings and it can happen, as private convictions engulf organizational convictions. About the shape of this expected new entity, they foresee that “it depends on who drives these organizations; cloning a new organization, is possible, and there was an attempt with the organization "Ansar Al-Bukhari in Africa, but this attempt was unsuccessful. The idea of declaring a state for ISIS in Africa is very unlikely." And on this subject, they reminded that, according to a study published earlier by the Center for Combating Terrorism at the US Military Academy at West Point in New York, "the Sahel and Sahara region has become a theater for the power struggle between AQ and ISIS."