According to an exclusive Arab News poll, the majority of people in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region don't seem to care much about the war in Ukraine. The survey was conducted among 7,835 people in 14 countries in the MENA region.
Asked about their position in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, 18% of respondents sided with Ukraine and 16% in favor of Russia.
However, an overwhelming 66% of people responded with a collective sign, choosing to take “no position” on the crisis, an indifference that reached its climax in Jordan and Algeria (74%), as well as in Saudi Arabia (71%).
Besides the complexities of European history and politics, UN experts in Brussels see another reason for the apparent indifference of many Arabs to events in Ukraine: “We see a very big gap between how Americans and Europeans view this conflict, and how it is viewed in other parts of the world. One of the key issues is that many people in the Arab world view NATO as standing against Russia, and the reality is that it appears impossible to overturn suspicions about NATO and the US in the MENA region soon.”
Although the fighting in Ukraine and the reasons for the conflict have indeed nothing to do with the Arab world, the shockwaves of the conflict are already affecting millions of Arabs, who are facing rising prices for basic foodstuffs. Experts had expected wheat from India to make up for some of Ukraine's deficit, but lately the Indian government banned exports, after crops in the country were hit by a heat wave, resulting in a record spike in the prices of certain foods.
Even before the conflict broke out, the World Food Program (WFP) was assisting millions of people in the region, including in Yemen, Lebanon and Syria. Today, as demand for resources increases rapidly due to events in Ukraine, rising food and fuel prices have alarmingly increased WFP's own costs.
Many countries in the region are heavily dependent on food exports from Russia and Ukraine which, due to the disruption of agriculture, port blockages and sanctions, have been drastically reduced.
Russia and Ukraine are both among the largest producers of agricultural raw materials in the world. In 2021, either Russia or Ukraine, or both, were ranked among the world's top three exporters of wheat, corn, rapeseed, sunflower seeds and sunflower oil. Russia is also the world's largest exporter of nitrogen and other fertilizers, essential ingredients for countries with large agricultural sectors.
In a recent report, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) warned that the disruption of harvests and exports in Ukraine, coupled with the impact of sanctions on Russian exports, threatened to create a "global supply gap that could push international food and feed prices up 8-22% above their already high base levels."
Economically vulnerable countries would be the first to feel the effects of a prolonged reduction in exports from Russia and Ukraine, and countries in the MENA region are directly in the line of fire.
The FAO predicts that “the number of undernourished people could increase by 8 to 13 million people in 2022-2023 globally”. The most devastating effects being felt in Asia-Pacific, then in sub-Saharan Africa, and in the MENA region which solely imports 42% of its wheat and 23% of its vegetable oil from Russia and Ukraine.
One of the most exposed countries to the food shortages and price increases triggered by the Ukrainian crisis is Egypt, which has been hit hardest. The country imports 85% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, and a large part of the country's tourism sector depends on tourists from these two countries. In early February, just before the Russian invasion, Egypt was already suffering from soaring world wheat prices and the government was considering controversial reforms to the country's costly bread subsidy system.
Regional governments are also well aware that, in several countries, soaring food prices are linked to the Arab Spring uprisings. In March, protests erupted in Iraq against a sharp rise in the price of flour, sparked by the war in Ukraine.
British analysts warns that Iraqis could be the first to launch a global protest movement against rising prices, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. They point out that "in various countries in the Middle East, there has indeed been a tendency to take little interest in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and not to take a particular position on it".
One reason is that in many Middle Eastern states, “it is often national governments that have the responsibility to resolve crises, and since what is happening in Ukraine is anything but ordinary, there is little debate about the issue in society.”
They added that “in stable and oil-rich Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, this may be justified, as the government has the means and the infrastructure to minimize the impact. interior of any external crisis".
By contrast, in less stable states in the region, such as Iraq and Lebanon, "much of society follows external events closely, as they are aware of the repercussions and try to take matters into their own hands, the government not having the capacity to do so”.