When representatives for the self-government of northern and eastern Syria met with MEPs in the European Parliament, the war in Ukraine was a constant presence. For starters, it pushed a lot of other things off the international agenda. Turkey has also been able to use the war to put itself in a position where Western countries and Russia are keen to keep it on its side and not do anything that might offend it.
Kurdish representatives had come to Strasbourg to inform MEPs of the situation in northern and eastern Syria. Central to their message was the continued threat posed by the Islamic State (DAESH/ISIS), and how this is completed by attacks from Turkey. Not so long ago, the Islamic State dominated the news, and the violence of its brief reign inspired global horror. Thanks in large part to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) of the Kurdish Autonomous Administration, IS no longer controls any territory, but it is far from defeated.
The Kurdish Autonomous Administration has to guard thousands of ISIS prisoners and tens of thousands of ISIS family members, including a generation of children raised for revenge. The camps and prisons that house IS fighters and their families were meant to be only a temporary solution. Housing is insufficient and precarious and the Administration does not have the means to remedy this or even to provide the necessary security. In the Al Hol camp, which houses IS families, the IS regime is in force and those who oppose it risk being punished, even murdered, by the other detainees.
For several weeks, the Autonomous Administration has been carrying out a security search of the Al Hol camp. Parts of Syria that were under IS control still contain IS sleeper cells.
Giving the example of the escape from the Islamic State prison in Al-Hasakah earlier this year, the Kurds highlighted the risks of an escape from Islamic State prisons and camps, and the dangers that this would entail, not only for the region, but for the entire world. And they asked if European countries would wait to act until ISIS had carried out another strike in Europe.
And Turkish aggression makes such a scenario more likely. Turkey's attacks are aimed at making the region insecure. They increase the threat from ISIS by increasing the chances of a mass breakout when the security forces are busy elsewhere, and also by generally disrupting all the work that is being done to build a well-functioning society. When people cannot find security, they are more easily recruited by extremist groups. ISIS also receives direct aid from Turkey and takes refuge in Turkish-occupied areas.
With the war in Ukraine, Western governments have become even less likely to try to hold Turkey back, as the Turkish government is playing on their fears that Turkey could completely switch to the Russian side. Meanwhile, President Putin and President Erdoğan have reached mutually beneficial agreements. It has been argued that the only thing stopping Russia from allowing Turkey to carry out another major invasion into the areas controlled by the autonomous administration is Iran, with whom Russia also has a mutually beneficial relationship. Iran does not want to see more of Syria fall under the control of its Turkish rivals. However, Russia is doing nothing to prevent Turkey's daily attacks on northern Syria, which are making life almost impossible for those living in border areas, killing key figures leading the fight against ISIS and target essential services, including water supply for millions of people.
Russia's plan is to reunite Erdogan with Syrian President Assad. It has been reported that there have been meetings between the intelligence chiefs of the two countries, but, for now, Erdogan seems to show more enthusiasm than Assad, who wants to see Turkey end its land occupation in Syria. If the two autocrats unite, it would destroy any hope of autonomy and democracy. By strengthening ties between Russia and Turkey, Ukraine has brought the possibility of such an outcome closer.
Turkey is not the only country for which Ukraine has proved a useful war. Their close allies in Azerbaijan have also jumped at the opportunities presented by the war in Ukraine. After Azerbaijan captured the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia two years ago, with the help of Turkish arms and even some Syrian mercenaries, Russia brokered a ceasefire. Russia has a defense agreement with Armenia. In recent months, the European Union has played a mediating role in peace negotiations, but it seems that the dictatorial Azerbaijani President, Ilham Aliyev, took advantage of Russia's concern for the Ukraine to strengthen its hand, with further strikes in the main part of Armenia. Besides Turkey's brutal history of anti-Armenian racism, the Turkish government supports Azerbaijan's ambition to carve out a connecting corridor along Armenia's Iranian border. Such a corridor would be a vital link for their own dreams of neo-Ottoman and pan-Turkish power.
Turkey has used the excuse of carrying out pre-emptive attacks against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which it calls "terrorists", to establish a growing network of military bases in the mountains of northern Turkey. This unspoken war has killed dozens of civilians, displaced thousands of villagers, and destroyed orchards and apiaries as well as thousands of hectares of farmland and forests.
The United States, which has always been keen to show its support for Turkey – and also to support attacks on popular leftist movements – fully supports Turkey's actions.
Turkey is aided in its invasion by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which, in its thirst for power and wealth, effectively gives up its hard-won Kurdish autonomy to work with its powerful neighbor.
Turkish interference in Iraqi politics was more generally reflected in the recent visit of the head of Turkey's National Intelligence Organization (MIT), Hakan Fidan. Choosing an intelligence chief to undertake a primarily diplomatic mission – both here and in Syria – does not send very reassuring messages
Turkish freedoms and human rights are going from bad to worse, but the politics of war in Ukraine means that other countries would rather not see what is happening. As Western countries fear Turkey will defect and turn against NATO, Putin is working with Erdogan on sanctions-avoidance arrangements that benefit both governments. Putin would not want to see Erdogan lose the next elections. Many Western politicians might also be pleased with his victory, only for fear of what he might attempt if he loses.
Every action against the Kurds tends to be met with resistance, even in today's inauspicious circumstances. People will resist however they can, and for those already in jail, that may mean putting their own health and lives on the line and going on a hunger strike. To demand their basic rights, three detainees are on hunger strike in Kilis, six detainees are on hunger strike in Kırıklar and four journalists in pretrial detention are on a five-day hunger strike in Diyarbakır prison. Sibel Balaç was hospitalized after nine months of hunger strike to demand a fair trial. In Afrin, in northwestern Syria, occupied by Erdogan since March 2018 and under the brutal control of competing mercenary gangs, a resistance group calling itself the Afrin Liberation Forces carries out attacks against the occupiers. Resistance also takes the form of demonstrations and marches across Germany and in the Netherlands. Three hundred and fifty lawyers from 22 different countries asked to represent Öcalan and the other three Imrali prisoners, and to visit the prison on the island. This follows a request from 775 lawyers from Turkey that was filed in June. Lawyers may not expect to be told to pack their bags and get ready for a visit, but they are helping to build a movement that is becoming harder for others to ignore.