How the war in Ukraine is changing the world balance

The war that began with the Russian invasion of Ukraine was supported by the US and UK with arms shipments and a continued US and British presence in Kiev alongside Volodimyr Zelensky. The EU has given up on Russian gas and oil, plus Nord Stream 2, sanctioned Russia and sent weapons to Kiev.

The war in Ukraine has shown a separation between the Anglo-sphere and Europe in the approach to Russia and China, according to some analysts. Furthermore, not only most African and Asian countries (India) have not condemned Russia and have not sanctioned it by continuing to buy gas and oil, but also Turkey, a NATO member, has neither condemned nor sanctioned Moscow and it has positioned itself as a mediator.

Turkey has also resumed relations with Israel and Arab countries. According to the Western press, Saudi Arabia is discussing a deal to inject $5 billion into Turkey's Central Bank, in a move that aims to bolster Ankara's foreign exchange reserves and marks yet another sign of rapprochement between the two regional rivals.

The United Arab Emirates have recently supported Syria to re-entered the Arab League, but also have good relations with Iran, which (through Baghdad) has begun talks with the Saudis. The Emirates are a friendly country of Israel and they have joined the Abraham Accords. Israel has not sanctioned Russia and has kept a low profile on the war in Ukraine. These countries have good relations with Putin, who is pragmatic and probably tends to find points of agreement rather than conflict.

The biggest geo-economic and geo-political change was the decision by OPEC+ (Gulf States, mainly Saudi Arabia, and Russia) not to increase oil production, requested in various ways by Joe Biden to curb inflation in the US. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has decided to sell oil in yuans, has established relations with China and a visit from Xi Jinping is expecting to Riyadh.

Few noticed that when OPEC+ announced not to increase oil production, as desired by the US, Russia started bombing Ukraine. Contemporary wars are won from the air and from the sea: aerial bombardments and missiles. The Russians use missiles and drones. The goal is the same as always: to destroy infrastructure, cut off electricity, gas, water, internet, make daily life unlivable.

The war in Ukraine has often been linked to US tensions with China. The Biden-Xi meeting at the G20 mitigated the conflict: Biden recognized the One China policy, said he did not want a cold war but competition between powers that respect each other. In recent months, Japan, the major US ally in Asia, has declared that it does not believe the Chinese will invade Taiwan and that it wants to continue buying oil from Russia.

The war in Ukraine has not divided the world into two blocs, as the USA would like. At the APEC meeting Emanuel Macron made it clear that he did not want the world divided into two blocks, but one world. In reality, the USA has shown, with the affair of the missile that fell in Poland, that it does not want a war with Russia. On the other hand, a war with Russia would split NATO. In general, the war in Ukraine did not implode the EU, which tried often to bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table.