The Kurdish issue is one of the most complex political issues in the Middle East, as it intersects with highly sensitive internal and external equations, including issues of national sovereignty, identity, the fight against terrorism, and the geopolitical interests of regional and international powers. Although the Kurds constitute the fourth largest ethnic group in the region, they remain deprived of an independent nation-state, and their communities suffer from marginalization, conflict, and constant political exploitation.
Despite all the abuses and exclusion, the Kurds in Iraq were able to hold a popular referendum on independence on September 25, 2017. More than 72 percent of voters participated, and approximately 93 percent voted for independence from Iraq. This event was the culmination of decades of struggle and years of relatively successful self-rule since 1991, and an affirmation of the right to self-determination guaranteed by international conventions.
Most international powers, including the United States and the European Union, refused to recognize the referendum results, insisting on the need to "preserve Iraq's unity." These same powers had previously supported the independence of South Sudan and the dissolution of Yugoslavia. Their refusal was a form of submission to regional pressure, particularly from Türkiye and Iran, which view any Kurdish move toward independence as a direct threat to their national security.
Türkiye views any independent Kurdish entity in Iraq or Syria as a potential nucleus for a Kurdish state that could fuel separatist sentiment within the country, home to more than 20 million Kurds. Ankara has carried out dozens of military operations inside Iraq and Syria under the banner of combating the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is nominated a terrorist organization. However, its real goal is to undermine any attempt at independent or semi-independent Kurdish rule, particularly in northern Syria.
Iran, which includes a significant portion of Kurdistan, fears the contagion could spread from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to its own borders. Iran is keen to maintain a weak framework within Iraqi Kurdistan, economically and security linked to Iran, and sometimes exploits political contradictions within the Kurdish community.
Since the rise of ISIS, the Kurds have been on the front lines of the war against terrorism, achieving major victories in Kobani, Mosul, and the outskirts of the regional capital, Erbil, among other areas. However, the charge of "terrorism" has been used selectively against them, particularly by Türkiye, which does not differentiate between the fighters of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in Syria and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), despite the fact that YPG has been an effective partner of the US-led international coalition in defeating ISIS.
This contradiction raises questions about the credibility of the war on terror rhetoric and reveals the double standards in dealing with the Kurds, who are rewarded with neglect or bombing, rather than support and recognition. The United States has treated them as temporary allies, used when necessary and abandoned when the mission was completed. This happened after the 2017 referendum, and it happened again in Syria when US President Donald Trump abruptly withdrew from northern Syria, leaving them alone to confront the Turkish army.
Russia, for its part, is trying to play a balance, sometimes supporting limited Kurdish demands within the framework of the Syrian state, and other times using the Kurdish card to pressure Ankara or Damascus, without being firm about supporting a radical solution or granting the Kurds the right to self-determination.
Given the near-term prospects for a Kurdish nation-state, a realistic and interim solution may be to adopt a federal or confederating model that grants Kurds in Iraq, Syria, Türkiye, and Iran broad cultural, political, and economic rights, without compromising the unity of existing states.
Accordingly, this formula can constitute a guarantee of internal stability, mitigate independence tendencies, and at the same time respect the Kurdish national identity. Any postponement of recognizing the right does not negate its existence, and stability in the Middle East cannot be achieved by ignoring the issue of an entire people, but rather by finding a just settlement based on the principles of justice and human rights, not just on the balance of power.