Many believe that the world has changed after October 7, 2023, as Palestine has returned to the forefront, and a solution has become required, because its absence would be disastrous for the region and perhaps for the world. These people can be called “peaceful optimists,” and they are confronted with “reluctant fighters” who believe that the Hamas movement has changed the equation of war, and that Israel is on its way to extinction. Between these two camps there is a group of realists who understand that the Hamas invasion will end in disaster, and that a final durable solution is impossible.
Optimists start from a real desire to resolve the conflict, and believe that history, territory, and interests are issues that can be overcome through dialogue between rational people who realize their interests, and then reach compromise solutions represented by the two-state solution. As for the “reluctant fighters”, they point out that Israel has become surrounded, that the steadfastness of Hamas has overturned the Israeli theory of deterrence, and that Israel's demise has become a matter of time. Since they are unable to remove Israel, and do not have a peace plan, this means the continuation of the asymmetric war with all its destructive consequences, not against Iran or Israel, but rather against the Arabs and the Palestinians.
Those who advocate the two-state solution justify their proposal by saying that it is impossible to defeat Israel, that the world has changed, and that Jews and Arabs must coexist in two separate states. But this coexistence seems impossible because the Israeli and Palestinian sides view the conflict with a transcendental reference that says: God gave us an exclusive right to the land.
Whoever reviews the theory of the Jewish state will see that its proponents are completely convinced that all of Palestine belongs to them, and that the Palestinians are Arab intruders who can return to their families in Jordan, Egypt and to other Arab countries. This logic is completely rooted in the thought of the founders of the State of Israel from day one, with British and American support, and therefore their method of acquisition was gradual.
In exchange for this realism, the oppositionist movement is waging the liberation battle, with a revolutionary vision, under the leadership of a non-Arab country (Iran), and under the slogan of removing America from the region and eliminating Israel. But the problem with this movement is that it sees in front of it nothing but Israel, and whenever it moves against it, it destroys Arab cities, displaces their people, impoverishes them, and widens the rift between them. This movement does not care that its leader (Iran) also occupies Arab lands, rejects international arbitration, and refuses to stop its interference in the affairs of its neighbors. This rejection is the even part of the Iranian structure, which believes that it has the right to dominate and control the region. In order to gain the legitimacy of its behavior in the region, it raised the slogan of liberating Palestine, as one of the main vectors of its Islamic revolutionary legitimacy.
The group of realists, in comparison, is aware of the balance of power and its tendency in favor of Israel, because Israeli government does not recognize the existence of the people of Palestine at all. This was confirmed by Netanyahu by saying that Hamas, which is besieged and exhausted, proved with its invasion how dangerous the establishment of a Palestinian entity is to Israel’s security. As long as the belief that Arab Muslims and Christians are not the indigenous people of Palestine (but rather the Jewish people) is rooted in the mind of the current Israeli leadership, the two-state solution will remain rejected, and in its absence, escalating violence will prevail. Therefore, an alternative could be to cordon off the conflict and find a temporary mechanism to manage it and not resolve it permanently. This will inevitably lead to the exclusion of the two-state solution from the discussion, and the introduction of the idea of a temporary solution guaranteed by prominent Arab countries and UN.
This temporary solution will freeze the conflict and allow the Arabs to restore their fallen capitals with the slogan of liberating Palestine. The temporary solution may involve effective Arab intervention, with an international umbrella, to protect the Palestinians and stop the theft of their lands, and in return guarantee Israel its security and Arab openness as well. This will bring temporary stability, and with the passage of time the balance of power may change, and what was rejected by the Israelis could become acceptable.