A UN press release dated February 9, 2023 reminds that the threat posed by Daesh in the world has not diminished. Furthermore, officials the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED), also told a United Nations Security Council session that this terrorist group "continues to exploit local fragilities and inter-community tensions, notably in Iraq, Syria and parts of the African continent, notably in the recruitment of terrorists”.
The terrorist organization finds its origins in the particular political, social and community context of Iraq at the beginning of the 21st century, when the country witnessed a gradual decline resulting from the American intervention of 2003. Daesh was able to respond to the resentment of the Iraqi Sunni Arabs and distinguished itself from other radical Sunni organizations by its ability to establish domination and control over a territory, the self-proclaimed "caliphate".
In December 2017, Daesh was militarily and territorially defeated in Iraq. However, the organization remains very active there as its members, fighters and leaders, have the advantage of possessing real knowledge of the field and local actors. The reintegration of the "families of Daesh" is far from complete and the Al-Hol camp located in Syria is an "incubator" for jihadists. The Syrian-Iraqi border is extremely porous and regional tensions as well as those between the central government in Baghdad and Erbil remain high. All these elements are factors that explain the resilience of Daesh in Iraq. Certainly, many leaders of the terrorist organization have been killed in 2022 and the intensity of the threat seems to have weakened, but the group remains active and contributes to the instability of Iraq.
In 2022, Iraq is - after Nigeria - the second country in which Daesh carried out the highest number of terrorist attacks (484). If the African continent has become the epicenter of the group's activities, the latter remains very active in its cradle of origin, in Syria and Iraq, where 833 people have been victims of these attacks in Iraq in 2022. Each Daesh operation resulted in an average of two victims in the country (compared to 37 for example in the Sahel region). This difference is explained by the type of attacks perpetrated: in Iraq, these are limited insurgent actions, of the guerrilla type, and carried out on a small scale. The peak of Daesh activity took place in April and May 2022, as part of the "revenge campaign", launched following the deaths of Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurachi and Abu Hamza al-Mouhajer, both killed in Syria during a US-led military operation, in February 2022.
In Iraq, the attacks claimed by Daesh have different targets: they may be military forces, police officers or other local security forces as well as civilian populations, Shiites in particular. Sunni populations who collaborated with the forces of the anti-Daesh Coalition are also targeted. The operations are mainly carried out by small groups of combatants, equipped with small arms and light weapons. When civilians are targeted, improvised explosive devices are used. These trends observed for 2022 seem to be confirmed also in 2023. The decrease in the number of attacks in certain Iraqi regions could be explained by a strategic choice: using them as staging areas. The province of Nineveh is currently mainly used to transport fighters, weapons and equipment to cells located in the east of the country.
The fight against Daesh in Syria and Iraq is carried out under the authority of the American central command (CENTCOM) and under that of the command of the Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve. It relies on local partner forces: the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Iraqi security forces. The regular actions that are carried out aim to defeat Daesh in a sustainable way. In 2022, 191 operations were conducted in Iraq against Daesh (at least 220 fighters killed and 159 imprisoned). In January 2023 alone, 33 operations were carried out by all partner forces in Iraq. Nine Daesh fighters were killed and 29 others arrested and imprisoned. During the same period, operations in Syria led to the elimination of high-ranking leaders of the organization.
Daesh continues and will continue to recruit new members because its ideology still persists. There are currently between 6,000 and 10,000 active fighters operating in Iraq and Syria. Movements on both sides of the permeable border are numerous and frequent.
The camps and prisons located in northern Syria and Iraq are a real breeding ground for recruitment by the terrorist organization. In a press release published on December 29, 2022, CENTCOM reported about 10,000 Daesh fighters held in Syria, and about 20,000 in Iraq. These figures explain the scope and all the importance of the attacks which were carried out to free the jihadists. Each released prisoner is an additional fighter and also allows Daesh to strike a media and strategic blow, while challenging the security forces in charge of managing these prisons. The chaos that followed the violent earthquakes at the beginning of February 2023 could worsen the situation. Twenty Daesh jihadists are said to have escaped from the "black prison" of Roj, located in northern Syria.
The “caliphate cubs” are the organization’s third source of current and future recruitment. In the Al-Hol camp in Syria, around 25,000 Daesh children are detained. They are prime targets for radicalization. Many NGOs are calling on different states to organize the return of these children to their country of origin and, according to Human Rights Watch, Iraq has currently repatriated approximately 2,850 children.
The rehabilitation and reintegration of Sunni Arab populations who were displaced into camps after the defeat of Daesh, whether they are people with real or perceived affiliations with Daesh, is a major priority for a viable and sustainable pacification.
In June 2022, more than 80% of the six million people displaced during the period of Daesh's self-declared caliphate have returned home. 1.2 million Iraqis are still displaced inside their country, of which 180,000 are in 26 camps (25 in the Kurdistan region of Iraq and one in the governorate of Nineveh). A recent report by the United Nations Development Organization (UNDP) shows that the increase in Daesh activities is hampering the will of communities to allow the return and rehabilitation of these families. With each new attack, the rejection of the return of the latter is stronger. Administrative obstacles and daily material difficulties are other elements of the reality of these families. Daesh continues to present itself as the only possible alternative for them.
The first weeks of this year 2023 showed a revival of Daesh activities in the Syrian-Iraqi region. The evolution of the presence and threat of the terrorist group will depend on several factors. First, how long will the United States' multifaceted support for local security forces last? Also, the permanence of tensions between Baghdad and Erbil perpetuates the existence of a gray zone which benefits Daesh. The management and security of prisons in northern Syria is another major issue: both because they are places of radicalization, but also because the release of its fighters is a major objective of the terrorist organization at a time when recruitment seems more difficult. Finally, economic and social development is a sine qua non condition for the rehabilitation and reintegration of the Sunni Arab populations of Iraq, whether or not they are affiliated with an extremist organization. Daesh will remain present and threatening as long as these populations continue to feel a sense of injustice, humiliation and persecution.