After a long period of inactivity, in June 2021, Islamic State’s branch in Libya claimed responsability for two IED attacks in the city of Sebha and Al Haruj Mountains. In both cases, the target was the Libyan National Army, killing 3 security officers and many others wounded.
At the beginning, ISIS’s branch in Libya has been seen as a refuge for ISIS CORE from Siria-Irak under pressure in Iraq and Syria. In addition, in view of Libya's geographical proximity to one of the main migrant routes to Europe, Libya was also an opportunity to threaten Europe.
Following the loss of Sierte in 2016, ISIS no longer controlled significant territory in Libya, beeing unable to build an adequate base to take refuge and ISIS members withdrew to southern Libya. In recent years, the opportunity to establish territorial dominance seems to have passed, yet ISIS is far from defeated because the group still have capabilities to fight back.
The chaos of Libya, - the security, political, economic and social issues are ISIS fuels needed for Daesh to withstand the struggle. Many Libyans who show intolerance of the authorities may become vulnerable and radicalize, identifying Islamic State as a possible actor capable of bringing stability to the region. As long as the group can exploit the real grievances in the country and find sponsors in the fight against external powers, it may be able to recover.
The Islamic State ability to resist and continue de fight is also due to its establishment in Fezzan Desert. This area has proved to be an extremely beneficial territory for Daesh, interfering with criminal activities - human trafficking, weapons, migrants, which brings considerable income to the organization. Also in this region, Daesh has entered a large pool of potential recruits from sub-Saharan Africa, taking advantage of vulnerable people, mostly migrants on their way to Europe.
Returning to the terrorist attack, the main purpose these incidents is to create a feeling of insecurity and distrust of the authorities. Islamic State in Libya uses a dual strategy, which demonstrates that it implements ISIS CORE ideological objectives (ex attacks on state institutions / security forces, aimed at removing power and implementing sharia), but also remains a relevant force in the country, protecting its base with a particularly advantageous geographical position (intertwining with criminal activities in the sub-Saharan region).
There is no doubt that ISIS’s evolution in Libia is unpredictable in the context of the country's specifics and the organization's ability to withstand, despite counterterrorism operations.
Islamic State’s resistance in Libya
