After the recent step taken by the Libyan Chamber of Deputies in Tobruk to install a new government chaired by Fathi Bachagha, and the refusal of Abdelhamid Dbeibeh, head of the Tripoli Union Government to step down, the country faces the multidimensional, political, geographic and economic split, or a third civil war.
After the recent step taken by the Libyan Chamber of Deputies in Tobruk to install a new government chaired by Fathi Bachagha, and the refusal of Abdelhamid Dbeibeh, head of the Tripoli Union Government to step down, the country faces the multidimensional, political, geographic and economic split, or a third civil war.
A year ago, a session of the Geneva Dialogue led to the installation of the government of Dbeibeh. The three members of the Council, President Mohamed Manfi, and the two vice-presidents, Moussa Kouni and Abdallah Ellafi, formed with Dbeibeh the winning list which allowed them to come to power. This situation prevailed before February 24, when the Council of State had rejected the constitutional amendment after having validated it, as well as the change of executive power by Parliament.
This means that the situation will be favorable to Bachagha, in the event of an agreement between the two Councils, which was indeed mentioned in the initiative suggested by the UN adviser for Libya, the American Stephanie Williams. She proposed the immediate launch of consultations between the two Councils to put in place a constitutional basis capable of allowing the holding of elections as soon as possible.
In Libya, there are economic entities, whose position will be decisive in creating an economic split in the country. Among these institutions is the Central Bank which is split between the East and the West of the country, and the measures taken by the Chamber of Deputies of Tobruk is likely to freeze the efforts of its reunification which are deployed by the United Nations.
In the presence of two banks, each of which will take sides in favor of one of the protagonists, it should be noted that the financial institution which evolves in Tripoli is the most active, as it controls the income and receipts of the country and its bias in favor of one of the two men (Bachagha / Dbeibeh) will determine, in large part, who will actually govern the country.
Moreover, the Petroleum Company is among the institutions whose position is still unknown and it could preserve a neutral position. The Energy Company could take sides in favor of Dbeibeh by refusing to deal with Bachagha's government. It should be noted that the main and almost unique revenues of the Libyan state budget come from the revenue of the Petroleum Company.
A predicted scenario is the outbreak of a new civil war, especially since this country has suffered two fratricidal conflicts over the past decade, in 2011 and 2019. This scenario is plausible because of the military alignment and armed movements that have accompanied the recent decision of the Tobruk Chamber of Deputies, particularly with regard to the entry of equipped and armed formations from the city of Misurata and other towns in western Libya into the capital Tripoli to support Dbeibeh.
Shortly before that, and immediately after Bachagha was given the task of forming the government, some 65 armed formations in Misrata announced their rejection of this choice, while 118 armed militias issued a statement to support Fathi Bachagha as head of government.