The parliamentary and presidential elections planned for the end of the year give the long-suffering people of Libya reason to be hopeful about their country's future. Nevertheless, their optimism is tempered by the ongoing struggles to achieve transitional justice, the fears about possible election violence, and the many other challenges the North African country's newly formed interim government is facing. Indeed, without a coordinated international and domestic effort to prevent election violence, deliver transitional justice, and consolidate the legitimacy of the new government, Libya can easily plunge back into conflict.
In March 2021, a new interim executive was established in Libya. The Government of National Unity (GNU), selected through a United Nations-supported process, replaced the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) and the parallel eastern cabinet based in the Cyrenaica region and not recognized by the international community.
While the GNU was formed only a few months ago, the obstacles it is currently facing in its efforts to unify the war-torn country and steer it towards elections are old. Indeed, most of these challenges stern from historic divisions between Libya's three regions. The unification requires a thorough assessment of the needs in each of Libya's three regions, as well as their existing functions and structures. Only after such an assessment, national ministries can be restructured in a sustainable way that is acceptable for all regions and that prevents the concentration of all decision-making powers in Tripoli.
The GNU is also facing many obstacles in its efforts to hold free, fair and legitimate elections before the end of the year. Many of these obstacles are technical- the authorities are struggling to register voters, to secure polling places and, most crucially, to agree on a legal framework for the election.
And even if the GNU holds elections that are accepted as legitimate by the majority of the Libyan people and the international community, it may not be able to prevent post-election scenarios that may hinder the peaceful formation of a new government or undermine its legitimacy. Indeed, current officials may try to maintain their positions against the will of the people after the election, or foreign troops in the country may make moves to undermine the election results to further the interests of their own governments.
Unresolved transitional justice matters may also hinder the prospects for sustainable peace and stability in Libya. For instance, internally displaced people- 278,177 at the end of 2020- need to be registered as voters in the regions they are currently residing in, and this is proving to be a challenge. Moreover, there are tens of thousands of people who consider themselves Libyans, but do not have the proper documentation to prove their citizenship, register as voter, or access services. If these issues are not resolved, and all Libyans given an opportunity to exercise their most basic rights, the legitimacy of the election will always be questioned and stability will prove elusive.
If all local political actors encourage their supporters to vote in the upcoming election, prime them to accept its outcome, and promise to participate in representative governance after the election, they can put the country on a direct path to peace and stability. Listening to the voices and concerns of women an youths, who can play a key role in the country's stabilization and development, will also help get Libya on the right track.
But the local actors alone cannot deliver the bright and prosperous future Libyans are yearning for- for international community also needs to play a role. Global powers need to offer the GNU the support it needs to hold free and fair elections. In addition, the United States and its European allies must create the necessary conditions for the countries that currently have troops in Libya to see it in their interest to retreat. If the US and its allies cannot achieve this, they should start directly pressuring these countries to withdraw their troops from Libya.
Today, Libyans are optimistic about the future, but they know from their experiences in the past decade that promises, commitments and good intentions mean nothing without constructive action. The GNU, with international support, can stabilize the country and put the nation on a path towards true reconciliation. It can help create a country where all citizens are free from violence, marginalization and discrimination. Holding free and fair elections is undoubtedly an important step towards achieving this. But it is equally important to create a national consensus that violence is not the answer to Libya's problems. If the GNU can convince a majority of Libyans to permanently denounce violence, the nation can finally forge a new social contract, leave the past behind, and start rebuilding. And this would be welcome news not only for Libya, but the entire region.