It is clear that Lebanon has entered a gloomy and dark phase, and it is not clear how it will emerge from it and at what cost and losses, especially with the Israeli attacks entering their second month, and it seems likely to continue for additional weeks, awaiting the completion of the moment of the American transition after an unprecedented presidential election in terms of polarization, results and political expectations.
Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who has refused to respond to American pressure for more than a year to stop the war on the Gaza Strip, and then on Lebanon, will not offer this free “gift” to outgoing US President Joe Biden, especially since he has a close relationship with President-elect Donald Trump, and looks forward working with him from the beginning of his new term on January 20, 2025.
The important thing is that Lebanon is now at the heart of the battle, and its exit from it entails heavy prices, some of which have been paid in advance through the number of victims, which has exceeded 3,000, and is increasing daily. Others may be paid later, especially in light of the absence of a military resolution between the two warring parties: Hezbollah is inflicting losses on Israel in the northern regions, targeting military bases and vital installations, preventing the return of residents to their settlements, and obstructing the advance of Israeli forces in the southern villages adjacent to the border.
In contrast, Israel inflicts enormous losses on Lebanon, its cities, villages and the southern suburbs of Beirut, and does not hesitate to target civilians in the context of its “military operations.” It has also eliminated the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, and his successor, Sayyed Hashem Safieddine, and a large number of other party's leaders, not to mention the bombings of pagers and wireless communications devices.
In this very context, the Lebanese differ among themselves in classifying and describing “victory and defeat”: Hezbollah supporters believe that they are inflicting defeats on Israel, while its opponents consider that Lebanon, as a whole, is experiencing a major defeat and collapse. A large portion of these people are betting on the gradual “fall” of Hezbollah, and some of them are circling around in their political positions in preparation for the “post-party” phase.
The truth is that relying on the party’s complete and final collapse may be somewhat simplistic, especially since there is no escape from acknowledging that the party has popular, social and representative extensions even if it has been subjected to severe and major blows, even if its financial capabilities have declined temporarily, and even if the majority of its institutions have become vacillating.
Whatever the case, it is clear that Lebanon is heading towards new paths, and the coming era will not be easy in terms of managing the political process. It is not expected that dealing with Hezbollah, whether defeated or victorious, will be an easy matter, especially in light of the sharp internal Lebanese divisions.
The current priority remains a ceasefire and an end to the daily attacks that affect many Lebanese regions and lead to the deaths of innocent civilians. Moreover, no one can ignore the urgent need to elect a new president of the republic who will lead the country in the midst of these difficult circumstances.