The atmosphere of euphoria over the demise of the Assad regime is justified, but concerns about the future of Syria are legitimate and should be the focus of attention, discussion, dialogue, and diplomacy in the coming days. After thirteen years of civil and sectarian war and the militarization of areas of Syria, the country has been transformed into an experimental laboratory for models of conflict management and ideological governance of areas liberated from ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra. Afterwards, the fundamentalist rule with the formation of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Idlib and the alliance with factions supported by Türkiye, in contrast to the Kurds’ experience with the SDF has created much chaos and anticipation in areas far from the influence of the players on Syrian soil.
After more than half a century of the Baath regime, the challenges facing Syria are greater, more complex and more frightening than any region touched by the winds of change, due to geography, resources and parties influencing the country from outside, which causes enormous risks of distrust and fear of the unknown. There are already skirmishes that could turn into battles on the ground between the US-backed Kurdish forces and the Syrian National Army, a mix of armed factions united only by the patronage of Türkiye and its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who seeks to expand his influence on the ground. In the rest of Syrian territory, there are armed cadres and small formations who have not joined the opposition entity, and the most feared of which is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
On the other hand, there are real worries of the return of DAESH, as there are thousands of its members detained with their families in camps secured by Kurdish forces, in Al-Hawl and Baghouz areas. Finally, it is also to mention the Assad’s allies who are seeking to salvage something of their losses on the ground through deals to preserve naval and air bases on the Mediterranean coast.
But, what about the common Syrians? There is no doubt that the return of millions of exiled refugees, nearly 12 million Syrians, who constitute half of the pre-war population, poses major challenges in terms of their aspirations for a new Syria that grants them a minimum level of dignity, security, and loyalty to the land. They believe that the future of Syria must be in the hands of the Syrians within a joint international plan led by the United Nations, the Arab League, and moderate countries, to spare Syria any possible scenarios of civil war, violence, or incursions by foreign countries. They also hope to unify the present Syrian mixture under a government capable of managing sectarian and ethnic divisions until a new constitution is drafted and elections are held.
Syria’s success in overcoming these obstacles and reassuring Syrians before others about their future requires moving beyond the moment of euphoria and exaggeration of describing it as a “clear victory”, without reading the complex context of the events, which could push Syria to move out of the Islamic crescent and into a fundamentalist arc.