In the past few months, Syria's occurrence in Arab and foreign media has increased, with analyses, reports, articles and statements made by officials in regional and major countries, who have spoken about the conflict in and around Syria. The main reason for Syria's prominence in the media is political and field developments related to the war waged by Israel against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, which has been expanded to Lebanon, against "Hezbollah. Amid the development of the Israeli war, regional repercussions of the war have emerged in Israeli-Iranian strikes, on the one hand, and in the escalation and diversity of Israeli attacks in Syria against targets belonging to Iran and its Shiite militias there, and targets belonging to the Assad regime, on the other hand.
The escalating military tensions in the region were accompanied by a succession of consultations across the capitals of the region and the world, in an effort to stop the conflicts and military tensions, to reach truces that would open paths towards Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Lebanese agreements and settlements.
Politicians and those interested in the region agree that Syria represents the fragile and weak flank, not only because of about fourteen years of conflict in and around it, but also because of the de facto that Damascus' authorities have become subject to regional and global powers. Actually, Syria is an arena for internal conflicts, which have augmented in light of the current Israeli war, despite the fact that the Assad regime has sought to distance itself from its Iranian allies and their militias in the "Axis of Resistance", and has avoided responding to Israeli attacks on its forces and sites, as well as it has shown flexibility towards Türkiye’s efforts to normalize relations.
Damascus' policies towards its regional neighborhood seek to please everyone, without resorting to options that would put it in the service of one party, leaving the doors open to everyone. However, this policy, which was acceptable in the past, cannot be accepted today amid the escalation of the political and military conflict, where everyone is looking forward to control the Syrian reality.
And the first interested is Israel, the main player that ensured the survival of the Assad regime, despite its reservations about the presence of Iran and its militias in Syria, which never represented a serious challenge. Recent developments have confirmed this. However, with the idea of eliminating Iran’s extensions in Gaza and Lebanon, a change occurred in the Israeli map of the controlling forces in Syria: to reduce what strengthens the power of Iran and Hezbollah in the structure of the Assad regime, which was undertaken by the Israeli attacks in the past weeks, including changing the border line, striking Syrian missile bases and airports, and the warning strike on one of Maher al-Assad’s headquarters, one of the most important pillars of the regime in the relationship with Iran and Hezbollah.
The shift in Israel’s positions on Iran and its tools in Syria was not due to the latter, which was the scene of transformations through which Iran sought to expand the margin of its presence and regional movement, an approach that is not consistent not only with Israel’s ambitions, but also with the growing Iranian presence from the Gulf to the Mediterranean coast and the Bab al-Mandab Strait on the Red Sea, amidst the escalation of missile and nuclear capabilities, and the escalation of the control capabilities of its tools, most notably “Hezbollah.”
Perhaps what gives Iran’s position additional importance is its ability to keep up with the various parties in Syria, through the theory of “strategic patience” with Israel, by remaining silent about its actions, and developing multi-level understandings with influential parties including Russia, Türkiye and the Assad regime, so that its interests remain above all the differences and competitions that occur with them.
The Turkish side represents the third regional power influencing Syria, as it sponsors and manages the "de facto" authority in the northwest, which is controlled by its tools from the National Army, in addition to Haiya Tahrir al-Sham and the Salvation Government, representing what remains of the extremist Islamic groups, and along with thousands of soldiers who give Türkiye opportunities for a greater role in any potential settlement, whether it is carried out in accordance with international agreements, as the United States says, or according to the Astana track, which is managed by Russia with the participation of Iran, Türkiye and the Assad regime.
In short, Syria is currently in a transitional phase, in which Israel, Iran and Türkiye are seeking to control it by using all available capabilities and potentials. These efforts, on the political and military sides, are accompanied by a close monitoring of major players, especially the United States and Russia, in light of which the fate of Syria can be decided, while Damascus stands captive to its own efforts, which focus on one thing: the survival of the regime.