Bashar al-Assad has departed, leaving Syria in ruins, with a collapsed economy, millions of people displaced, a volatile internal situation, and international sanctions. The government of President Ahmed al-Sharaa is starting from a country confronted with serious problems, and on top of that, it must contend with Israeli ambitions, Iranian conspiracies, and international demands that undermine sovereignty. Sharaa is facing a dilemma: neither capable of decisive military action, nor prepared to accept external dictates. This requires skill and patience to navigate international and regional contradictions and avoid them to preserve the Syrian entity. Otherwise, fragmentation is very likely in the face of the demands of the Druze, the Allawites, and the secession of the Kurds.
The refusal of some Druze leaders to join the central government stems from unrestrained Israeli support and their sense that the opportunity is ripened for federalism. Federalism weakens the central government's authority and empowers minorities at the expense of the majority, giving Israel, Iran, and others leverage within Syria. This federal gain represents a major loss for Türkiye and the Arabs. Türkiye views federalism as a threat to its security, while the Arabs view it as a threat to their national security and the territorial integrity of Syria. Therefore, we have witnessed a Saudi diplomatic push to promote international recognition of the new Syrian government and a Turkish trend to provide it with security protection.
This context prompted the Kurds to rush to reconcile with the government in Damascus and sign a preliminary agreement that strengthens central authority. This is due to the Kurds' fear of American withdrawing from their areas and the absence of Russia as a backup force. This agreement has put the Druze in a difficult corner, as they constitute two percent of Syria's population, and it is illogical for them that Kurds to be granted with a federal privilege. Moreover, President Trump may not allow Israel to expand its intervention in Syria, as this could harm his vision of withdrawing from the region and handing it over to his allies to safeguard America's interests, such as fighting ISIS and transferring its prisoners to the care of the Syrian state with Turkish guarantees.
Fortunately for the Syrian government, Europe and Russia are preoccupied with the Ukrainian war and do not want complications in the Middle East. Europe, in particular, fears waves of migrants and is eager to return Syrians to their country. Fear of a fractured Syria is an American and European concern, and for this reason, the Americans persuaded the factions in Tanf regions to join the state and allowed Qatar to supply Syria with gas.
Russia, on the other hand, is aware of its precarious situation with the Syrian people, and its primary concern now is maintaining its naval base in Tartus, a vital gateway to the African continent. This Russian interest places it in contradiction with any Iranian destabilization attempt of Syria.
These international realities are not static, and the Sharaa government must understand their shifts and fluctuations in order to build a strong state. The moment has come to prioritize the interests of the Syrian people over external demands, and in particular, to reject the false concerns of external actors regarding minorities. The new Syria will no longer be burdened with fear for minorities, as long as its government adheres to the constitution, the rule of law, equal opportunity, and respect for human rights.