The Palestinian question is supranational, including the entire Middle East and even beyond. This is why it is necessary to understand the specific interests of each country, before believing their official declarations.
Palestine was indeed elected as an observer at the UN by 137 states but with no effect on the ground. This land is made up of three disjointed territorial entities, where two political movements are irreconcilable: Fatah and Hamas.
West Bank:
Of the 3.3 million Palestinians who live there, 78% reject Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, described as a tool in the hands of Israel. Fatah, the ruling party, is divided between Marwan Barghouti (imprisoned in Israel), Mohamed Dahlan (excluded and residing in the UAE) and Mahmoud Abbas (87 years old). The current war rather discredits the Palestinian Authority, showing the world the division of the Palestinians. The Israeli Government has despised the Fatah government, even though it is the only reliable political partner of the Israeli government whatever its composition.
Jerusalem:
The dispute over Sheikh Jarrah, a suburb of North Jerusalem where those expelled from 60 villages west of Jerusalem took refuge in 1947, is fueled by colonial extremists, who want to expel them once again.
Gaza:
The 362 km2 of Gaza territory is home to 2.4 million inhabitants, or 6,000 people per km2. In 1956, Israel occupied Gaza but had to evacuate it under international pressure. In 1967, Israel reoccupied Gaza until 2005. In 2007, Hamas drove out Fatah, as Israel and Egypt impose a blockade on the territory. In 2008, 2012, 2014, 2021, heavy clashes took place with Israel. Iran, which supports Islamic Jihad like Hamas, has stopped its financial aid and is replaced by Qatar, which sends 30 million dollars per month to finance the civilian missions of the government of Hamas.
Hamas:
Its political wing with Ismaël Haniyé resides in Doha, Qatar, as the military wing with Yahya Sinwar in Gaza. Hamas has failed to protect the inhabitants of Gaza or to clean up the economy, using subsidies from the UN, Qatar and Iran to buy weapons. Contested by Jihad Islami, he wanted to establish himself as the exclusive Palestinian leader. This war of 2023 was interpreted by part of world opinion as used by Hamas on an equal level with Netanyahu, since Hamas facilitated to him transferring the confrontation over Jerusalem to Gaza. Iran-backed Hamas worries Gulf countries and the Palestinians are the victims of this form of confrontation. As of January, 2024, daily bombardments of the territory since October 8, 2023 have caused the death of 21,000 people and injured 55,000 others.
Arab states having dealed with Israel:
In Israel, 2 million out of 9 million inhabitants are Muslim Israeli citizens. In the 1990s, a discreet economic rapprochement was made by Israel with Oman and Qatar. From 2011, a convergence of security interests was established between Tel Aviv, Abu Dhabi (federal capital of the UAE) and Riyadh (capital of Saudi Arabia), which have two common enemies, the Muslims' Brotherhood and Iran.
Arab States and Palestine:
Since 1948, the Palestinian question has been used by Egypt, Iraq and Jordan to justify their foreign and regional policies. This appropriation became an essential element of the internal legitimacy of authoritarian regimes which claimed Arab nationalism.
Before the new war in Gaza, Arab countries barely mentioned the Palestinian problem, with Arab youth being more interested in economic and political reforms than in the Palestinian question. The Israeli-Arab conflict was reduced to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. The younger generations, embodied by Mohamed ben Salman or Mohamed ben Zayed, favor realpolitik. Arab governments want to benefit from Israeli technologies and American arms purchases. Israel has six thousand start-ups, 22 incubators, 160 accelerators, 16 universities including the Technion Campus with fifteen thousand students, recognized worldwide. Israeli cybersecurity companies have a worldwide recognized expertise.
The Abraham Accords provide that all Muslims will be able to come on pilgrimage to the Al Aqsa mosque but do not address the issue of military occupation and the dispossession of Palestinian land. The Arab countries have forgotten the Palestinians, but Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attacks reminded them of this.
Saudi Arabia:
In June 2017, Mohamed ben Salman became Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and with Donald Trump weaved tangible forms of a triangular cooperation Riyadh-Washington-Tel Aviv. The multiple military and diplomatic failures of Mohamed bin Salman have weakened the Saudi monarchy in the face of Iranian ambitions. Thus, Riyadh has moved closer to Tel Aviv for its nuclear research which it is carried out with Pakistani engineers. In 2018, Riyadh accepted the over-flight of Arabia by Israeli aircraft.
On November 24, 2020, Netanyahu traveled to Riyadh to meet with Mohamed ben Salman in the presence of Mike Pompeo, then US Secretary of State. A Saudi-Iranian agreement was concluded under the aegis of China on March 10, 2023 in Beijing, but Riyadh does not want to leave the monopoly on the defense of the Palestinians to Iran.
Egypt:
The Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty dates from 1979. Cairo has intervened in March 2019 to reduce Hamas-Israel clashes. Currently, Egypt is rigid towards Israel but does not want to let the Palestinians enter Sinai, for fear of Hamas and the Muslims' Brotherhood. Cairo had warned the Israelis of an imminent Hamas attack in early October 2023.
United Arab Emirates:
From 1971, 500,000 Palestinians contributed to the development of the Gulf countries, supported by local elites. They are appreciated for their expertise (doctors, journalists, teachers). Since 2013, an Israeli company, NSO, has provided spyware called Pegasus to the Emirati authorities who thus monitor their adversary Qatar, their Saudi allies as well as all the opponents of their regime.
On August 13, 2020, a joint Emirati-Israeli declaration was negotiated under the auspices of Donald Trump. The Emirates and Israel have the same caution on the Syrian issue, the same approach on Iran, and the same fear of the Muslims' Brotherhood.
Jordan:
The peace treaty with Israel dates from 1994. Amman does not want the Israeli-Arab Agreement to ratify the settlement of 5 million Palestinians in Jordan and would renounce the guardianship over the Al Aqsa mosque. Amman wants to recover two border areas, Baqoura and Ghoumar, loaned to Israel for 25 years during the 1994 Agreement. Amman recalled its ambassador to Tel Aviv in October 2023, but fears Hamas and the Muslims' Brotherhood more than Israel.
Oman:
Muscat remains neutral in all conflicts involving Israel or Iran with whom it shares control of the Strait of Hormuz. In the 1990s, Muscat and Tel Aviv opened a commercial representative office, which the Sultanate closed in 2000 (Second Intifada) and concluded an academic agreement between Ben Gurion University and the Water Research Center of Muscat.
In February 2018, Omani foreign minister traveled to Jerusalem where he visited the Al Aqsa mosque. In October 2018, Mahmoud Abbas visited Muscat, and in July 2019, bilateral relations were resumed.
Iran:
Prior to 1979, Israel and Iran were Washington's non-Arab allies. Then Israel saw its embassy in Tehran offered to the Palestinians in 1979. The rivalry between the two countries comes from their competition in nuclear technology.
Iran is also in opposition to most Arab countries, apart from Syria. Its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, is contested by 60% of its compatriots. In Yemen, Tehran maintains the civil war between Shiite Houthis (40%) which it supports and Sunnis (60%). By trying to create a Shiite axis from Tehran to Beirut via Baghdad and Damascus, Tehran opposes Tel Aviv, but also Ankara. Iran uses militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen as well as Hamas in Palestine, but in the event of a setback, Tehran would sacrifice Hamas for the benefit of the Lebanese Hezbollah, much better equipped and Shiite. On the other hand, the deadly attack of January 4 in Kerman, which caused 65 deaths, shows the real danger of Daesh militias, anti-Shiites, on Iranian territory.
Iraq:
A Jewish community has inhabited Iraqi Kurdistan since ancient times. Among its members who left for Israel from 1948, some returned to do business. Security at Erbil airport, capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, seems to be entrusted to Israelis. Israel supports the Kurds of Iraq, which goes with the American interests.
Lebanon:
The Palestinians, largely Sunnis, have participated in the Lebanese civil war (1975-1990). Currently, Hezbollah controls their camps, which weighs on Palestinian-Lebanese relations. In 2020, there were still 175,000 living there.
The Israeli-Lebanese agreement on the delimitation of territorial waters (2000) was not voted by the Lebanese Parliament.
The Hamas attack of October 7, 2023 on Israel was planned in Beirut by Saleh al Arouri, number 2 of the Hamas Political Bureau, with Hezbollah, Iranian representatives and Jihad Islami. Israel took revenge by killing Al Arouri and six Palestinians with a drone strike on the Hamas office in the southern Shiite suburbs of Beirut, on January 2, 2024.
Groups from Jamaa Islamiya and the Al Qassam Brigades are crowding the Lebanese-Israeli border to fire missiles at Israel, without coordination with Hezbollah. Lebanese farmers see their olive orchards burned by Israeli firebombs. In a speech in November 2023, Hassan Nasrallah, on behalf of Hezbollah, tried to highlight the Shiite-Sunni rapprochement in the defense of Palestine. In his speech of January 3, 2024, following the assassination of Al Arouri, he threatened Israel but left Hamas in the fighting against the Israelis. However, Iran and Hezbollah need Hamas to prove that they are defending the Palestinian cause. The Lebanese evoke the Israeli destruction of 2006 and would not like any more similar bombings.
Qatar:
By 1996, Doha accepted the opening of an Israeli Economic Office which was closed in 2000, because the Second Intifada. Doha pays the salaries of Gaza civil servants. The Qatar-Gaza alliance is based on their ideological proximity over the Muslims' Brotherhood. Hamas leaders took refuge in Qatar, like Khaled Mechaal, as 100,000 Palestinians reside there.
Qatar shares with Iran the largest maritime gas yard in the world, but, a discreet NATO ally, it also hosts two bases, American and Turkish. He remains the ideal negotiator for contacts between enemies, in particular for the release of hostages.
Syria:
Of its 23 million inhabitants, Syria has 7 million refugees abroad and 7 million internally displaced people. A new generation is becoming radicalized. Ethics does not exist no longer. Israel supports the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (Al Nosra) in the northeast of the country. Hospitals in the Israeli-occupied Golan treat young Syrians from the border area controlled by anti-Assad militiamen from the South Lebanon Army. Palestinians have been silenced by Assad's forces or defected to extremist Islamist movements. Bashar completely destroyed the Palestinian Damascene suburb of Yarmouk, defended by Hamas and attacked by the Syrian army and Hezbollah.
Yemen:
The Shiite Houthis who hold the capital, armed by Iran, traumatized the Saudis and Emiratis by bombing their countries in 2019. Nowadays, they are bombing Israeli or Western ships passing through the Suez Canal and sailing near the Yemeni coasts. The Egyptians, worried about the impact on revenues from the Suez Canal, did not however dare to join the international coalition fighting against Houthi aggression. Thus, Iran engages its Arab militias, firstly Hamas in Palestine, then Hezbollah in Lebanon, then the Shiite militias in Iraq, finally the Shiite Zaidi Houthis on the Red Sea.
Bahrain:
This small state of 762 km2 signed a peace treaty with Israel in 2020.
Morocco:
Rabat closes the Morocco-Israel Liaison Office in October 2023.
Sudan:
The Sudanese-Israeli Peace Treaty was signed in October 2020.
Tunisia:
Parliament is preparing a law criminalizing any act of normalization relations with Israel.
NON-ARAB STATES
China:
Beijing wants to maintain its good relations with Israel in the technological field. China knows she is contested by the Sunnis for her ruthless repression of Muslim Uighurs.
United States:
The United States is slowly removing itself from the Middle East, but 50,000 of their soldiers are still present there. Israel is not a great power but becomes one when it is backed by the United States. The Obama administration granted Israel the largest aid package in American history: $38 billion. On the other hand, the Biden Administration's number one concern is China. The Israeli-Palestinian issue is no longer one of its priorities and it supports the ceasefire. With regard to Iran, the USA does not adhere to Israel's views but it has lost its influence over this country. They no longer see how to stop Iran's progression towards possession of atomic weapons.
France:
The French Consulate General in Jerusalem, which does not depend on the French embassy in Tel Aviv, supports all religious establishments, schools, hospices and hospitals dependent
on France in the Palestinian territories. Paris sent a hospital ship off the coast of Gaza, setting an example for Arab leaders who have the means to do so.
Russia:
Russia maintains good relations with Israel, which is counting on Moscow to limit Iranian power in Syria. One million Russian immigrants reside in Israel, many pretending to be Jews but are in fact Orthodox Christians. The Russian Orthodox Church buys back Greek Orthodox churches and convents in Israel.
Türkiye:
Türkiye was the first Muslim country to recognize Israel (1949) and signed a cooperation agreement with the Jewish state. During his visit to Ankara in mid-February 2008, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak offered the cooperation of his Secret Services to the Turkish army's operations against the Kurds of the PKK and strengthened their exchanges of information on Iran.
On December 13, 2017, Turkish president Recep Erdogan invited the leaders of the Islamic Conference Organization to Istanbul with the intention of putting themselves at the head of the Umma, the community of believers of Islam, for the defense of Palestine. The declaration “We proclaim East Jerusalem as the capital of the State of Palestine” is found in the final communiqué of the conference. But the ICO states are mostly allies of Washington. The recent situation in Syria, supported by Iran, has placed Ankara back on an anti-Iranian axis. On another level, the antagonism between Mohamed ben Zayed, president of the UAE, and Erdogan, supporter of the Islamists, is great. The Emirates accuse Turkey of supporting Qatar to strengthen political Islam. In 2019, Turkey completed construction of a 5,000-troop base in Qatar. Marking the hundredth anniversary of the founding of the Turkish Republic, Erdogan sees the Turkish domain extending to the former Ottoman Empire: Iraq, Syria, Iraqi Kurdistan, Caucasus, Balkans. Thus, Erdogan would like to rule the Sunni world instead of Saudi Arabia.
The 20,000 Jewish Turkish citizens are worried. A synagogue was vandalized and in January 2024, Mossad agents were arrested in Turkey. However, if Erdogan officially supports Hamas, he expelled officials from the Muslims' Brotherhood and Hamas, after October 7, 2023, in his intention to get closer to the Emirates.