For decades, observers have said that changes in the Middle East are slow. But this assumption is no longer true. Just look at the dramatic transformations witnessed in Lebanon, Syria, and Iran in recent weeks and months:
A year ago, Lebanon was at war with Israel. Few would have predicted the ceasefire that took effect last November, an events that followed after the election of President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. Together, they formed a reform-oriented, technocratic government that restored hope to Lebanese citizens for a brighter, more stable future.
In Syria, the world was shocked by the sudden fall of the Assad regime and the meteoric rise of Ahmed al-Sharaa, the former Islamist opposition leader turned into a reformist head of state. Sharaa is now rapidly leading Syria toward normalization with Israel and regional reintegration.
Meanwhile, the Iranian regime has suffered devastating military setbacks, its intelligence apparatus is in tatters, and the country faces an uncertain future. Iran's weakening has diminished its influence in the region, hampering Hezbollah, which has long-time obstructed the country's sovereignty and reform efforts.
Lebanon stands to be the main beneficiary of these dramatic regional transformations. Decades of war, conflict, economic collapse, systemic corruption, and Hezbollah's tyrannical hegemony have left Lebanon weakened. With Iran on the defensive, Hezbollah's ability to disrupt Lebanese politics has diminished. The new Lebanese government has the political authority and capacity to seize a unique opportunity to rebuild and reform the country.
Syria is taking promising steps toward reconstruction, reform, and peace. As a result, it is attracting the attention—and investments—of the United States, Israel, and the Gulf states. Syria is even hinting at an imminent accession to the Abraham Accords. Meanwhile, the Gulf states are moving insistently to support post-war reconstruction in both Syria and Gaza, pouring billions of dollars into these rapidly changing environments.
By contrast, Lebanon risks to fall behind. The longer it delays reform and disarmament, the less it will be a priority for Western partners and Gulf states, and the less it will be capable to receive the much-needed international aid.
Aware of Lebanon's fragile situation, US President Donald Trump has recently made a serious proposal, by dispatching in the area one of his closest Middle East advisors, Ambassador Tom Barrack, who also serves as US ambassador to Türkiye and special envoy to Syria. This proposal includes steps to complete the disarmament of all militias, including Hezbollah, demarcate the borders between Lebanon, Syria, and Israel, and secure guarantees of Israel's withdrawal from disputed Lebanese territories. It is hoped that these steps will lead to peaceful relations with its neighbours. It also emphasizes the urgent need to implement major economic reforms aimed at creating the conditions necessary for long-term stability, peace, and prosperity.
However, President Trump is known for his impatience. If he senses hesitation or delay from Beirut, he may redirect US attention toward faster-moving and evolving arenas—Syria, Israel, and the Gulf—where US strategic interests are more clearly advanced. This would further marginalize Lebanon in an environment of increasing competition for reconstruction funding and geopolitical attention.
The stakes could not be higher. If Syria and Israel normalize relations, they may also begin cooperating on the security of their shared border, excluding Lebanon's participation in this process. Lebanon risks becoming a buffer zone—or worse, a battlefield—if it does not quickly chart its own sovereign path forward.
The region is changing rapidly. This is a rare opportunity for the above-mentioned countries to maintain international support for their reconstruction after being torn apart by wars.