The Iranian media analysts are oscillating between mistrust and certainty about the Russian position and the repercussions of the Ukrainian crisis on Vienna's path to revive the nuclear agreement on the Iranian program, while the negotiation process is approaching the moment of crossing the finish line. They say that the repercussions of the Ukrainian crisis on the path to reviving the nuclear agreement "depend on future developments" on the war ground.
Analysts say that the Ukrainian crisis has not yet affected the Vienna negotiations, but there are possibilities, the high level of tension may affect the negotiations, warning of the repercussions of depriving Russian banks of the services of the Association for International Financial Communications between Banks (SWIFT) or sanctions targeting their oil and gas exports.
The Iranian government agency "ISNA" tried to answer the frequently asked questions in recent days regarding the connection between the Ukraine file and the Tehran talks and the major powers. It bets the impact of the war on the nuclear negotiations on two factors. The first is the stage the negotiations have reached, and the second is the depth of the Ukrainian crisis and the potential for intensification of battles. The agency expected that the chances of agreement between the Western and Russian parties will remain low on the outstanding issues in the negotiations in the long term.
According to American experts, "the failure of the negotiations will lead to the removal of the Iranian file from the political-technical dimension to a security issue, which Russia does not want because it views the Iranian issue as a non-proliferation issue."
In the same context, Iranian officials asserted that, in all situations, Teheran must pursue its interests, and they expressed optimism regarding the future of the negotiations.
They also added that "the Russians did not allow the agreement to be signed before the attack on Ukraine, and if Iran had signed the revival of the agreement before the Russian attack on Ukraine, it would have now been in the position of supply and demand in the new energy markets in the world.”