Three reasons could explain the surge of armed violence perpetrated by some of Assad's remnants on Mediterranean coast in recent days:
- The first reason is the continued chase of Assad's regime criminals by the security services, which a segment of Syrians considering it a step towards the required justice and the punishment for their actions.
- The second reason is their exploitation of the living difficulties that Syrians are experiencing due to the destructive legacy of the Assad regime over fourteen years of wars and persecutions, which destroyed the capabilities, potentials, and structures of the state and society in Syria.
- The third and final reason is the efforts of the remaining militias, along with the remnants of the Assad regime, to stir up chaos and spread it along the path of a civil war, which would be a prelude to Iran regaining its influence, in cooperation with Bashar al-Assad or some of his remnants, as possible.
Over the past three months, Assad's remnants have been waiting to see what the new Syrian regime might bring, and whether it will escalate into a severe crisis. This could be due to internal conflicts, rebellions, and internal struggles, including clashes with other de facto powers, particularly the Kurd Autonomous Administration, which controls northeastern Syria.
However, none of these possibilities materialized and the opposite occurred. Positive relations developed, along with a desire to communicate and consult in the hope of resolving mutual problems at both the internal and external levels. This was coupled with the authorities' declared intentions to move toward positive relations for Syria with various parties.
The second aspect of the remnants' hopes relates to the future of their presence in Syria in light of two matters. The first is the Syrian administration's tendency towards a easy going approach, based on calling on everyone to hand over the weapons and government property they possess and to obtain a document regulating their future relations. In parallel with this trend, there is the future of leading figures from the remnants, some of whom sought individual survival by moving to neighboring countries to reside there. Some of them crossed the borders illegally, amid great danger, to Lebanon and Iraq.
What strengthened the remnants is that they possess weapons and ammunition of their own, in addition to what was seized at the moments of the regime’s collapse, which is added to the stock of warehouses in the coastal mountains. The remnants also do not lack money, as they have looted the funds of the state and collected a lot of money from corruption, bribery and extortion, which they have practiced openly. Additionally, they possess a network of relationships and a huge amount of information, all of which can be used in political movements.
The remnants of the regime took advantage of the accumulation of political and economic difficulties, along with the security tensions they stirred up in Al-Sanamayn, near Daraa, and in Jaramana, around Damascus. They also detonated and organized chaos in Ladhaqiya and Tartous, through random killings and taking civilians hostage. This opened the door to political and military-security responses that put an end to their crimes, and even to their existence, even at the price of the blood of soldiers and others who were carrying out their duty in confronting them.