During a recent press conference, the French president Emmanuel Macron confirmed the withdrawal of French forces from Mali and a general reorganization of the vectors involved in the fight against terrorist networks. The issue was also addressed in the context of the summit in Brussels between the European Union and the African Union.
Operation Barkhane, as the military officials called the French presence in Mali, prevented the collapse of the Malian state in 2013. Today, however, the political, operational and legal conditions are no longer met for the French, European and Canadian military, deployed in Mali, to be able to continue their mission effectively. But France and its allies will continue to support the state of Mali and the Malian people in their efforts to achieve "lasting peace and stability", as president Macron emphasized.
On the ground, in parallel with the war against the jihadists, a kind of ideological war was taking place in the sub-Saharan region. There, Western forces remain redoubtable, disbanding numerous jihadist leaders and dismantling several terrorist networks. However, Europeans and Canadians have failed to gain public confidence. Anti-Western discourses have been more effective than calls for reason and unity facing the jihadist danger. Many political leaders and local leaders have gradually managed to implant a kind of deep animosity towards those who actually came to help these people live in a democratic and secure regime. Since 2013, after the French were initially greeted with flowers, enthusiasm has cracked and anti-French sentiments have become dominant. Anti-French propaganda spread and won the spirits, and gradually the French military presence was designated as the cause of instability, instead of being seen as a solution to the problems of instability.
The military leaders who took power in Mali have practically managed to incite their population to simply demand the departure of the French, European and Canadian troops, relying instead on the help of Russia and the Wagner group mercenaries.
Although Emmanuel Macron does not accept the word "failure", this term appears in almost all analyzes of the French press, as, for example, Le Figaro considers the exit from Mali to be a "bitter, tactical, but above all political failure." The parallel with the American withdrawal from Afghanistan is on everyone's mind.
Technically speaking, the withdrawal from Mali will be ordered and will take a period of 4 to 6 months, and between 2,500 and 3,000 French soldiers will remain in other Sahel countries. France and the European Union will work with other countries that need support to curb jihadist expansion.
One may also wonder why the Wagner group's mercenaries are now being called by the military junta to provide security in the country. A very simple answer is this: because mercenaries do not ask questions about the rule of law, democracy or human rights. And the ruling Malian military, which has in fact stopped the democratic process in their country, hates being asked about such "values".
It is foreseeable that the departure of the French, Canadian and European contingents from Mali risks causing a vacuum in the general terms of anti-jihadist fight. This vacuum risks having other political consequences in Africa, where democracy is not expanding, but, on the contrary, it is rather restrained.