For already three months, Ukraine has been subjected to a military invasion by Russia which has already claimed the lives of 3,238 civilians, including 277 children. In addition to the damage and loss of life, the country has suffered severe material and economic damage since the start of the invasion, a situation that has led Ukraine to a state of devastation that will take years to repair.
Although the international attention is currently focused on Ukraine, it is appropriate to emphasize that this war does not only affect Europe. The multilateral context means that, for better or for worse, conflicts take a global character and develop in a sort of domino effect which affects more or less all continents.
The Middle East is a good example. Specifically, Syria, a country that has experienced a bloody civil war that has lasted ten years, has shown how international interests can be challenged anywhere in the world. Thus, Syria was and remains an international chessboard where the interests of the United States clashed with those of Russia, creating a conflict in which not only regional interests were at stake, but where international powers were quarrelling for influence and indirect control of the region.
Russia sent planes and troops to Syria, launching one of the bloodiest campaigns against the population. Aleppo is one of the cities that have been completely reduced to ruins and where alleged "war crimes" have been exposed.
Today, a few years later, this scenario is repeated on European soil, and analysts asserted that "Syria was Russia's war school for invading Ukraine."
However, a distinction should be made between the Syrian conflict and Ukraine. The first and most notable is that the Russian military entered Syria to support the Al-Assad regime, providing air support and units. In this country, the Russians supported a war effort, contrary to what is currently happening with Ukraine. There, Russia has launched an unprecedented large-scale invasion. This operation, much more complex than the one carried out by Russia in Syria, demonstrated Moscow's desire to annex part of a territory that the former Soviet Union considers its own after Russia was seriously threatened by the rapid expansion of NATO bases in enclaves very close to Russian borders.
Although the context of the war is different, there are some similarities in how they operate militarily. The use of air strikes, artillery and missiles against civilian areas with the aim of terrorizing the population is one of the destructive tactics employed by Russia in Syria. Similarly, the negotiation tables that were initiated in Ukraine are in the same line as those carried out in Syria. In both countries, the Russians offered humanitarian concessions, such as opening corridors, only to later violate them, using the time gained in negotiations to reinforce their troops.
It should be noted that the presence and influence of Russia in Syria is still very much present. Al-Assad is an important Kremlin ally, and that gives Putin an ally in an influential part of the Middle East. In this sense, the presence of Russia in Syria also represents a threat to the countries of the region.
In the case of Turkey, the former Ottoman power has decided to close its airspace to military and civilian flights from Russia. Furthermore, Turkey is trying to play an influential role at the negotiating tables between Russia and Ukraine. As Turkey is a member of NATO, this is a notable move, signalling Erdogan's ambitions to gain influence and become a necessary country for diplomacy.
However, Turkey does not want to get the mistrust of Europe, which makes its position on the Ukrainian invasion harder and more critical than expected. Additionally, Turkey has its own internal military operations towards the Kurds.
For their part, the Kurds are trying to control the regions of Kurdistan, which include parts of Iraq, Turkey, Syria and Iran, regions that have not been internationally recognized. In this struggle to keep the Kurdistan project alive, the Kurds continue to wage battles against the Turks, who seek to seize the territories they control. Strongholds in northern Syria, where Kurdish resistance continues to exist, as well as some jihadist cells, have become major sites of confrontation between Turks and Kurds, sites where human rights abuses allegedly take place by Turkey have also been denounced.
Turkey is not the only country with regional interests in Syria. The presence of Iranian forces in the country is of particular concern to Israel. Since the beginning of the Syrian civil war, Tel Aviv has not hesitated to ally with Washington to balance its vital interests. On the Ukraine issue, Israel has come under pressure to position itself for or against the Russian incursion, but has decided not to confront Russia directly as it needs its support to check Iran's influence.
While Iran and Russia may once have shared common interests, there are overriding interests that differ significantly between the two countries, a situation that became evident when the two countries decided to support Al-Assad in Syria. Now, in the Ukrainian context, the issue of gas and oil has become of vital importance, an issue that also extends to nuclear energy and the return of nuclear agreements by the United States, a process of negotiation complicated that does not seem to see the light of day.
In this regard, Russia is the country with the largest nuclear arsenal and also plays the role of guarantor of enriched uranium, which gives it influence over Iran. If the negotiations succeed, Iranian gas could be in sharp competition with Russian gas, a situation which would be further complicated by the fact that it is possible that this gas passes through gas pipelines crossing Syria and Turkey.
All this will also depend on the outcome of the Ukrainian conflict. If Russia achieves its goals and countries like Syria, Turkey or Iran take a stand against Russia's incursion, they could suffer very negative consequences. On the other hand, if Russia appears weakened and without international support, which is already the case, Iran and Turkey will try to gain a foothold in Syria, while Israel will seek to maintain its interests.
The Middle East is an unpredictable geopolitically region. Every incursion, political change or movement, no matter how small, has major international consequences. With the departure of the United States, this becomes even more evident. It is difficult to foresee what will happen, but for the moment Russia does not seem to want to take the same measures as Washington in the region. Indeed, it will take advantage of this situation to continue to gain influence, even if everything will now depend on what is happening in Ukraine. What is certain is that Russia needs allies, which it will no longer find in Europe.