May 2023 was the moment of the reintegration of Bashar al-Assad's regime into the Arab League after a decade of exclusion. It had effectively been excluded from the international scene because of the repression of political protests and the death of hundreds of thousands of Syrian civilians. At the same time, the Syrian opposition is mobilizing to try to re-establish a dialogue with the regime.
Indeed, the "Syrian opposition" was called for the outcome of a meeting in Geneva on June 4, for the resumption of talks with Bashar al-Assad's regime under the aegis of the UN, as an extension of the reintegration of the Damascus regime into the fold of the Arab League on May 7, 2023.
At the end of a two-day meeting in Geneva, the seven main components of the "Syrian opposition" have agreed a joint document emerged in which the Committee called, without great conviction, "to support the efforts of the United Nations" to take the necessary measures for a "comprehensive political solution", in accordance with the resolution 2254 of the Security Council of the United Nations dated December 18, 2015. The document provided elections supposed to be held "within 18 months" under the supervision of the UN, as well as a "credible, inclusive and non-sectarian governance" in order to set a timetable and the modalities for drafting a new Constitution. And these things have never known the slightest beginning of implementation. Instead, the Syrian opposition has lost much of the support it enjoyed from some countries in the region. If Qatar or Egypt were represented in Geneva, neither Saudi Arabia nor the United Arab Emirates had sent delegations, the two petro-monarchies having now resumed their diplomatic relations with the Damascus regime. And even Turkey, longtime the main backer of rebels controlling parts of northern Syria, has also shown signs of rapprochement with Bashar al-Assad.
In counterpoint, some 150 Syrian civil organizations met on June 7, 2023 in Paris for the launch of a common non-governmental platform entitled Madania (“civil society”) with the declared objective of finding a voice for that Syrian civil society wanting to be a stakeholder in the future of a country devastated by more than a decade of war.
These demands have little chance of succeeding as the Syrian regime, which considers that it has won militarily, will certainly not show the slightest desire for negotiation of a political process that would be inclusive according to the expectations, for the time being unfinished, of the Constitutional Committee set up in 2019. After long negotiations between the Damascus regime, the "Syrian opposition" and the UN, the establishment of a Constitutional Committee for Syria was announced on September 23, 2019. It was supposed to work on drafting a Constitution paving the way for new elections. In charge of drafting the constitution for the post-war period in Syria, this committee was to pave the way for elections in the country, while a first presidential election, which was held on June 3, 2014 in the midst of civil war, had reappointed President Bashar al-Assad with a very large majority devoid of any democratic relevance. Another presidential election was held on May 26, 2021 under the same conditions by renewing the Syrian "rais" once again.
The year 2023 nevertheless represents a turning point, first of all with the consequences of the February 6 earthquake and afterwards with the reintegration of Syria into the Arab League decided on May 7.
On May 19, the Arab summit, in which President Bashar al-Assad officially took part, underlined the "need to take effective and efficient measures to reach a settlement" of the conflict in Syria which has claimed some 500,000 lives, 13 million people having had to flee their homes, including 6.6 million who became refugees in neighboring countries.
Bashar al-Assad's Syria was reintegrated into the fold of the Arab League on May 7, but the process had been gradual. On March 18, 2023, Bashar al-Assad was received in Abu Dhabi, after having already been in March 2021. But above all the Syrian minister of Foreign Affairs, Faisal al-Meqdad went to Riyadh on April 12, 2023. Less than a week later, his Saudi counterpart, Faisal Bin Fahran Al Saud, made the trip to Damascus, on April 18, 2023. So many signs that foreshadowed an imminent rapprochement.
On May 1, 2023, in a meeting in Amman, Jordan brought together the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq and Jordan, as well as Syrian foreign minister Faisal al-Meqdad. The purpose of this meeting was to discuss ways to normalize relations with Syria, as part of the establishment of a political settlement of the civil war that has ravaged the country for more than a decade. A final statement after the meeting said the ministers had discussed means of voluntary repatriation of some 6.6 million Syrian refugees, as well as coordination of efforts to combat drug trafficking.
In addition, there is obviously the question of the return of the 6.6 million refugees, a large part of them being still in Turkey, refugees whom the Damascus regime does not really want to return. This problem is one of the elements that pushed Ankara to approach Damascus, during an unexpected meeting in Moscow on December 28, between the Syrian and Turkish defense ministers, Ali Mahmoud Abbas and Hulusi Akar, in the presence of their Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu. It was then the first public meeting of this level between Turkey and Syria since 2011, even if secret contacts between the heads of the intelligence services of the two countries had resumed almost three years ago. The meeting in Moscow was an opportunity to discuss the management of the long common border, Syrian refugees and "common efforts to fight extremist groups" according to a press release from the Russian Defense Ministry.
The Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has multiplied the signals of openness since last summer in favor of normalization with Damascus. One should have to wait a little longer to see if the positive expectations materialize with regard to the stakeholders of the catastrophic consequences of the Syrian civil war for the Near and Middle East region, and even beyond.