The shockwaves of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine and the consequent sanctions imposed on Moscow are being felt around the world, including in the MENA region.
The rapid evolution of the war and its terrible humanitarian consequences took the world and many countries in the region by surprise. In the Middle East and North Africa, the conflict is exacerbating an already volatile and complicated situation. Although the end of the current war is not yet clear and no precise strategy for exiting the crisis has been articulated by Russia, the impact of the hostilities is already deeply felt not only in the immediate European neighborhood of Ukraine, through the nightmare of millions of refugees, but also in the Middle East and North Africa. Many countries in the MENA region were already struggling to limit the fallout from the pandemic, when they suddenly found themselves facing an unprecedented economic crisis and the prospect of a sharp increase in energy and fuel prices, wheat and a possible disruption of the food supply. If not properly and quickly addressed, this situation could lead to a new wave of social unrest in an already volatile region with vivid memories of violent uprisings sparked by rising food prices in many Arab countries during the last decade.
Beyond the immediate perils in and around Ukraine, the Russian invasion of that country and the European response are likely to affect the political stakes in the Euro-Mediterranean region and the Euro-Mediterranean process as a whole. The shift of attention to security and, at a later stage, economic reconstruction in Eastern Europe risks relegating the Euro-Mediterranean partnership to second place in the EU's agenda. Fewer resources will be allocated to regional development projects and vertical integration. The focus could be rather limited to the fight against illegal immigration, cross-border trafficking and terrorism. Reforms will be put on hold and political and democratic transitions will lose momentum. Europe, which is about 40% dependent on Russian gas, will seek new supply prospects from oil and gas exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa to fill the vacuum left by Russia. A real boon for these countries and their leaders who will substantially increase their revenues and their influence with European leaders.
Although it is certainly premature to assess the real impact of the war on Euro-Mediterranean cooperation, the current situation could nevertheless be an opportunity for the leaders of the two shores of the Mediterranean to reflect together on the shortcomings of the process and the best ways to re-launch it in order to achieve its initial objectives, namely the creation of a common area of peace, stability and shared prosperity. This crisis also offers an opportune moment to explore new avenues of cooperation, particularly in promising sectors for both parties: renewable energies, the green economy and local sourcing.
The current war in Ukraine will undoubtedly have its own impact on the geopolitics of the MENA region. The United Nations General Assembly vote on March 2 illustrated in some ways the individual reaction of Arab League member states to the Russian invasion. In the Maghreb, Tunisia, Libya and Mauritania voted in favor of the Resolution which "deplores in the strongest terms Russia's aggression against Ukraine". Algeria abstained and Morocco chose not to participate in the vote. With the exception of Iraq and Iran which abstained, other countries in the region supported the Resolution while carefully choosing their words to justify their votes, refraining from explicitly condemning Russia and especially president Putin. Syria supported Russia and even recognized the separatist region of Lugansk and Donetsk.
In fact, Russia has been very active in Middle East regional policy over the past decade. It helped the Syrian regime recover most of the national territory occupied by the insurgents. It has expanded its political and military footprint in the region by seeking security alliances with unstable regimes seeking new partnerships to bolster their precarious security. In Sudan, the head of the military junta had developed a new economic alliance with the Kremlin, restoring Russia's aspiration to secure a naval base on the Red Sea.
On the military front, Russia just last month concluded the largest military exercises in the Mediterranean since the Cold War, which involved 15 warships and more than 30 aircraft. The Hmeimeem naval base on the Mediterranean coast of Syria has become an integral part of Russia's defense contracts and is helping to significantly increase the Russian presence in the region.
The Ukrainian war, in the heart of Europe, seriously threatens to put regional conflicts in the MENA region on hold. The Security Council, already deeply divided on how to resolve regional conflicts, particularly in Libya, Syria and Yemen, may find itself unable to contribute to the resolution of these conflicts. Libya which, at the end of December, missed the opportunity to elect a new legitimate leadership, is again on the brink of a new violent confrontation between two competing Governments, each claiming a certain legitimacy. A proxy confrontation of regional and international powers on Libyan soil driven by conflicting economic and geopolitical interests could escalate further due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and the West.
In Syria: the war in Ukraine has not only had an impact on the situation in this country, but the two conflicts are closely linked. Syria has since 2015 provided an operational ground for Russia to test weapons in addition to serving as a military base for its air power and navy in a strategic location in the Mediterranean. Syria's firm support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the importance of military and strategic cooperation between the two countries will make more difficult for the UN Security Council to adopt a new Resolution on the Syrian issue.
In Iran: According to Western sources, Moscow seemed to delay negotiations to revive the nuclear agreement, just when the conclusion of this agreement appeared imminent. Russia is asking for specific guarantees that Western sanctions will not prevent it from maintaining trade with Iran, once a new deal is reached. This blockade has been lifted. The relationship between Russia and Iran has always been an alliance of interests rather than a sharing of values. Russia has consistently supported Western sanctions against Iran and various Security Council Resolutions aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Iran, for its part, believes that the “Ukrainian crisis has its roots in NATO provocations”. His Minister of Foreign Affairs nevertheless adds that his country “does not consider war as a solution to the crisis”.
In general, from Moscow's perspective, instability in the Middle East is a bigger problem for Europe than for Russia. With the exception of Syria and Iran where Moscow has specific strategic interests, Russia could play the role of a "troublemaker" rather than an active peacemaker, unless it clearly obtains this it wants and that its global interests are safeguarded. It is quite difficult to imagine a scenario in which the war in Ukraine will not negatively affect international efforts to resolve conflicts in the region.
The war in Ukraine will certainly increase instability in the MENA region rather than advancing the peace agenda. The rapidly deteriorating relationship between Russia and the West will have its own impact on various ongoing conflicts in the region. This will certainly widen the division within the UN Security Council, making it difficult, if not impossible, to reach consensus on a possible settlement of the various crises in the region.