The security environment in the region called MENA (Middle East and North Africa) has been precarious for decades. The threats, mainly intraregional, came from various sources, including Iran but also the tension between certain Gulf countries, enmities between the main countries of Africa in the North, the activism of radical groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah in Levant. To this must also be added the transnational threats from Al-Qaeda and other extremist neo-Islamist Salafist movements which are increasingly distinguishing themselves by their violence.
After the Arab revolts, the danger from local Islamist groups increased amid widespread unrest encouraged by extremist clerics using mosques to preach hate and calling for violence. With states weakened, the region has become an attractive location for groups that seek to escape the efforts of the fight against terrorism. Thus, the identification of terrorist groups operating within these states and efforts aimed at their neutralization have become very difficult.
In this context, the civil war in Syria have been only an aggravating factor but at the origin of the emergence of a new type threat, in addition to traditional threats: the proliferation of increasingly jihadist unstructured groups (Ansar Al Sharia, Jabhat Al Nosrah, ISIS…) that had greater freedom of action and therefore greater power to cause harm. These groups benefited from logistical assistance, financing and weapons mainly from Saudi Arabia and the United States, with an ultimate goal: the creation of a new geopolitical order in the region.
The Iran's support for Syria is mainly explained by geopolitical imperatives rather than the Shiite religious solidarity. The defeat of the Assad regime would mean, in the short term, the weakening of Iran's sphere of influence and the limitation of its role in the Arab world.
Another consequence of the war in Syria is particularly worrying. Indeed, the confrontation is clearly defined in sectarian terms with the demonization of Allawites and the fight against the establishment of a “Shiite crescent” which could include Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
Tension between Sunnis and Shiites groups in these countries is increasing and has a contagion effect in countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon where political demands are becoming more sectarian than ever.
Although there is no real short-term danger of sectarianism escalating into violent conflict within the Middle East, the long-term effect is an unhealthy general political climate, especially in countries non-accustomed to this kind of polarization.
The influx of Syrian refugees into neighboring countries is another important destabilizing factor. More than a third of the Syrian population has already been displaced internally or externally (6 million displaced and 2 million refugees in neighboring countries).
Observation of Syria's civil war highlights the following:
First, the focus of political decision-makers on classic threats has led to an underestimation of more imminent threats, such as the danger of the multiplication of unstructured armed groups which are able to have access to special, chemical and biological weapons. This new type of proliferation in the region can constitute a factor in escalating the risks of a broader and probably massively destructive confrontation.
Secondly, in Syria the United States, having apparently not taken the accurate conclusions of their previous policies, are adopting very worrying behavior for the region by making the same fatal errors committed in Afghanistan and in Libya: providing support to Al-Qaeda. The 2012 September attack against the US diplomatic compound in Benghazi was led by fighters who benefited directly from NATO air power and logistical support during the uprising against Gaddafi's regime. These challenges remain for what is of current American involvement in the civil war in Syria.
And finally, we can only note that new alliances in the region seem to be coming together. For the first time, countries like Israel and Saudi Arabia share the same concerns, hopes and interests recently intensified by the 5+1 interim agreement with Iran. An improvement in Iran's relations with the West will strengthen Iranian influence throughout the Middle East region.
The war in Syria complicates the already harsh and specific conditions of the fight against terrorism in North Africa. The so-called Arab Spring countries currently serve as a recruitment platform and fighters returning home from Syria represent a destabilizing factor for the entire region. There would be more than 1,000 Tunisian fighters in Syria, according to sources from the Tunisian Interior Ministry, and their return will have a impact on the security environment in Tunisia and beyond.
Syria has become a source of infiltration of terrorists, weapons and of explosives in North Africa, particularly in the countries of the Arab Spring given their porous borders, a weakened security apparatus and the lack of regional security coordination.
The war in Syria highlights the urgent need for a defense strategy and common security in the Maghreb and a regional integration is the key to real lasting security. Strengthening intra-regional cooperation in the form of a collective partnership is necessary to replace the dependence of North African countries on the United States and France. A Maghreb security system to fight against terrorist groups could prevent greater non-African foreign interference in the region and dissuade AQIM from intensifying its policy of kidnapping Westerners in order to obtain ransoms and provoke direct foreign intervention.
There is also a need for greater involvement of the European Union in rebuilding the security capabilities of Tunisia and Libya because the future of the Euromed partnership depends on the success of the war against terrorism.
Certain efforts are being made within the Cooperation Council of Gulf (CCG) to implement a collective security system but it is still in an embryonic stage and deserves to be developed. The CCG was created in response to collective security threats from Iran and Israel, and as a means of strengthening the capacities of its members in the fight against terrorism as well as protecting them from asymmetric attacks. But the operation of this security system is hampered by political rivalries and border conflicts between Saudi Arabia and southern Gulf states such as Oman, Qatar or the United Arab Emirates which continue to quarrel and fail to definitively establish their borders.
Military cooperation efforts have also often been more superficial than real because they lack a real military structure. Indeed, Saudi Arabia has dismantled the GCC “rapid reaction force” created during the first war of the Gulf in 1990-1991 and officially dissolved it in 2005. Questions of security are treated according to the circumstances, which prohibits any strategic vision in terms of regional security and the fight against new types of threats.
Security issues are also handled primarily under the umbrella of the United States and the United Kingdom. Although France is trying to position itself as a major player in the region, there are serious doubts about the availability of the means for such a policy.
Anti-terrorism cooperation with United States has become the cornerstone of any security policy in the MENA region and this through bilateral agreements. Most countries in the region, due to the absence of a conventional collective security system, continue their own policy of maintaining their national security. Several countries, especially in the Gulf region, rely on the United States and the United Kingdom for their safety.
Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar have US bases and military logistics facilities, while Oman has close ties with the UK. The United States, in particular, effectively dominates the regional security structure and has transformed their “observer position” into a “constant presence” .
But this could change in the future with the turn of US strategic interests towards the Pacific and the current development of production energy of North America. The dependence of the United States on the Middle East will significantly decrease, and with it the importance of its strategy in the region and its impact on international relations.
By failing to create a collective security system in MENA region, to stop the supply of weapons to jihadist groups, to adopt an integrated approach to the terrorism, and to introduce necessary and non-exclusive political and economic reforms, radical Islamic groups will inevitably and deeply take root in Syria, and a whole generation of desperate young people will continue to devastate Syria and the entire region.