The United States and Israel have destroyed numerous military assets that Iran has used to threaten the Middle East for decades. The U.S. Department of Defense (Pentagon) reported carrying out 15,000 strikes in the first ten days, destroying not only launch sites, missiles, and ships, but also many military production facilities.
Attacks will need to continue for at least another two weeks to ensure that the Iranian regime is unable to pose a serious military threat for several years, if it survives at all. Eliminating the threat from Tehran would undoubtedly constitute a U.S. military victory, perhaps the first one over Iran since 1979.
A fierce struggle is currently underway between the demands of achieving victory and the immense financial strain the war is placing on energy and stock markets. Victory is possible, but only if the United States can shoulder this financial burden until it can secure the Strait of Hormuz and reopen trade. Currently, shipping traffic through the strait has declined by approximately 90 percent. Almost all liquefied natural gas shipments have ceased. Around 400 oil tankers are trapped in the Arabian Gulf west of the strait, unable to depart, while a similar number of vessels are stranded on the eastern side in the Gulf of Oman.
The price of Brent crude has risen by more than 50 percent in the past month. If oil prices reach $150 a barrel, it could trigger a sharp market decline. At that point, pressure would likely mount significantly on President Donald Trump's administration to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which will not be an easy task. Iran can threaten maritime navigation using drones, particularly the Shahed drones loaded with explosives, as well as unmanned fast attack craft. It also possesses cruise missiles, which pose a particular threat given that the strait is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, giving U.S. warships just 30 to 40 seconds to take defensive measures.
Iran’s missiles, drones, and attack boats have already suffered significant damage from airstrikes and are expected to continue to be targeted. Therefore, the biggest obstacle to reopening the Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s sea mines, lying silently on the seabed. While US attacks have taken 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels out of service, Tehran likely still possesses hundreds, perhaps thousands, of these mines.
The administration of the late US President Ronald Reagan faced a similar challenge about 40 years ago, when Tehran sought to pressure the Gulf states to end their support for the late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War.
Today, the challenge appears even greater, as Iran possesses more sophisticated mines than it did in the 1980s and regularly disregards the rules of international mine warfare law, such as clearly marking mined areas.
It is likely that, within the next weeks, a sufficient number of US destroyers will arrive in the northern Arabian Sea to escort merchant ships. While it might be helpful for allies to provide capable warships, this is not essential in the short term. If the United States can hold out over the next few weeks, it will be able to completely undermine Iran’s military capabilities. This would open the door to a period of relative calm lasting several years, an outcome that neither sanctions nor diplomacy have achieved in more than four decades.