In a recent report, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) estimated the value of the damage inflicted on Iran from June 13, 2025 until mid-June 2026 at between 400 and 600 billion USD, warning that these losses could be much greater if a comprehensive field survey were allowed. It also stated that the scale of the losses is catastrophic in every sense of the word, explaining that the Iranian economy was experiencing a deep crisis before the war, which has deepen subsequently. It pointed out that the inflation rate has reached about 90 percent, while unemployment is estimated at about 66 percent of the workforce, 55 percent of Iranians living below the poverty line, and another 23 percent standing on its edge.
Moderate figures within the Iranian leadership are aware of the magnitude of the disaster; therefore, they seek to stop the war and begin a comprehensive rescue operation that will take years and will require a radical change in the state’s approach so that Iran can return to the international community and obtain the necessary expertise and investments to rebuild what the war has destroyed, not only in terms of infrastructure, but also in terms of human beings.
However, this approach faces opposition from a hard-line faction within the Revolutionary Guard, which believes that the United States and the West in general are currently in a weakened position and are seeking an agreement with Iran to end the crisis caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This faction believes that the current opportunity may not present itself again and that continued confrontation will only strengthen Tehran's position on the international scene. Therefore, it is pushing for continued escalation despite the economic and humanitarian costs, hoping to force the West to accept Iranian terms.
In the coming weeks, Iran may find itself facing to choose one of two paths: either a more severe economic collapse if the negotiations fail, or a major shift in its policies that opens the door to a return to the international community and a start to addressing one of the biggest disasters the country has seen in decades.
American Administration has exerted increasing pressure on the Iranian regime, in an attempt to deepen divisions within the governing institutions, based on the conviction that internal disagreements already exist but are not clearly visible to those who do not know the nature of the regime and how it works.
During his final years, the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was extremely suspicious of the Revolutionary Guard, which was established to protect the regime. Therefore, he was careful to distribute the centers of power within the regime, so that no person or faction could monopolize influence or money, and he kept the different wings in a constant state of competition to prevent any of them from gaining complete control. At the same time, he relied on a group that was extremely loyal to him personally, which included elements recruited from the poorest and most marginalized groups, and used them to control the balances within the regime and monitor the rest of the centers of influence.
With the death of Khamenei Sr., these forces entered into open conflict over power, as the political vacuum left the door open for competition between different factions. Reports indicate that an influential group within the regime had surrounded Khamenei Sr. and diminished the roles of its most prominent rivals.
After the ceasefire, the power centers had an opportunity to regroup, but continued American pressure is pushing them to accelerate the resolution of the internal conflict, at a time when the confrontation over power, oil revenues, smuggling networks, and circumventing sanctions is imminent.
Those who hold this view believe that the continuation of the conflict between the regime's factions will lead to its exhaustion and weakening from within, without endangering American or Israeli positions. This scenario also assumes that allowing Americans into Iran to remove the uranium stockpile, if done under non-war conditions, would pose a significant challenge to the regime.